MotoGP Red Bull Ring Preview 2018
Ducati Looks to Rain on KTM's Home Parade
Austria’s Red Bull Ring, home of this weekend’s eyetime Motorrad Grand Prix von Österreich, is the closest thing to the Bonneville Salt Flats of any track on the MotoGP calendar. For those riders, ahem, who have trouble getting their bikes to turn this place is like heaven. The weekend looks like it’s going to be a Ducati clambake, but looks can be deceiving.
Recent History in Austria
Recent history at the Red Bull Ring has been, well, brief. The track joined the calendar in 2016 after an 18-year gap in the running of the Austrian Motorcycle Grand Prix. Selecting Red Bull Ring as the venue, with it’s but nine (9) turns, gave Ducati Corse a bulletproof venue they could dominate with their eyes closed until KTM gets its Austrian act together.
In 2016, the factory Ducati Dueling Andreas (Dovizioso and Iannone) led the factory Yamahas on a merry chase through the lush Austrian countryside, followed by everyone else. At the flag, Iannone handled Dovizioso (this was the year everyone but Scott Redding won a race) while The Spartan outgunned The Doctor for the last step on the podium.
Last year would have been a carbon copy of 2016 with the exception of Dovizioso winning, Jorge Lorenzo taking Iannone’s seat and finishing fourth, and those pesky, unwelcome factory Hondas hogging the second and third steps on the podium. This was one of those races, similar to what we saw last week, when Marc Marquez and Dovizioso went knives-in-a-phonebooth, Spain vs. Italy, Honda vs. Ducati, and Dovi ended up on top. The kind of competition that gives motorcycle racing a good name. We should be so lucky to have another one like last year on Sunday.
The track record here of 1:23.142 is owned by Iannone and was set in 2016, the last of the Bridgestone years. Marquez got close last year. Someone’s going to beat it this year, weather permitting.
Mexico and Finland?
In a virtually unpublicized announcement, we’ve learned that Mexico – yes, THAT Mexico – has been provisionally added to the 2019 calendar in place of the Grand Prix of Finland. The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez outside Mexico City has hosted F1 races since 2015 and has been added to the provisional MotoGP calendar for next year, much to the consternation of Valentino Rossi, who says it’s a lousy track and he’s liable to get kidnapped off the street, or words to that effect.
The new Kymi Ring in Tillola, about 70 miles northeast of Helsinki had been scheduled to host a grand prix next year, but construction is sufficiently behind schedule (pronounced shéd-jūl) to preclude placing it on the 2019 calendar. Should Finland be completed by 2020, it would likely take the place of an existing European round – betting Aragon here – rather than join as a 21st race, the idea of which – 21 race dates – also causes Vale to hyperventilate. Should the Finnish track not be completed to by 2020, it may go the way of Ebbw Vale in Wales.
I’m with Rossi. I think Mexico is one of the scariest places in the hemisphere, especially in and around the capital. It would be one thing if the track were a thing of beauty, which it’s not.
It will be fun to see whether Rossi has enough juice to keep Mexico off the final 2019 schedule.
A Little Number Crunching
Sadly, Marquez and his frigging brilliance have left my theory screwed, blued and tattooed. He stands closer today to topping 373 than he does missing 298. I will update this regularly in order to keep tabs on my brilliant notion, one which has been wrong virtually since Day One.
On the other hand, the graphic itself could be used to argue for a three-tranche system, rather than five, as the breaks are pretty clear, as shown above. (The better line between #2 and #3 would separate Bautista and Pol.) The only thing is – as specified in the Rules of Tranching, you gotta have at least five.
One last intuitive way to slice this is as follows:
- Riders likely to score > 300 points.
- Riders likely to score > 200 points.
- Riders likely to score > 100 points.
- Riders likely to score < 100 points.
- Riders likely to score < 50 points.
Which would produce
- Rossi, Dovizioso, Viñales, Lorenzo
- Zarco, Petrucci, Crutchlow, Iannone, Miller, Rins, Pedrosa
- Bautista, P Espargaro, Rabat, Syahrin, Morbidelli
- Aleix, Smith, Redding, Nakagami, Abraham, Luthi, Simeon
Dani Pedrosa in the News
Dani Pedrosa, early in what was supposed to be his Farewell Tour, has reportedly been approached by KTM to become a test rider beginning next year, to the surprise of few. I’m convinced KTM coveted Pedrosa for Hafiz Syahrin’s seat on the Tech 3 team next year with Miguel Oliveira; my guess is that Dani turned them down. He would, in my opinion, be a great choice as a test rider, as his ability to provide useful feedback is as good as anyone’s. (Part of the problem is that Honda is not asking him his opinion much these days, trimming the RC213V the way #93 wants it.) Dani would, of course, have to wear ankle weights and a lead vest in order to approximate the bulk of a full-sized rider.
Your Weekend Forecast
Weather-wise, rain is expected Friday, clouds on Saturday, and scorching sun on race day. As there is a very loose correlation between weather conditions and brand performance, the forecast could lead one to expect fast times for Ducatis on Friday, Yamahas on Saturday and Hondas on Sunday; we have just crossed over from the ridiculous to the sublime.
Dovizioso found his rhythm in the second half last year; Brno may have marked the beginning of some improved form for the Italian this year; Red Bull Ring is a great place to find out. Lorenzo has it going on at this point and must be considered a threat. Marquez and Rossi – always. Viñales is dealing with The Red Mist. I find myself pulling for Danilo Petrucci, desperate for his first premier class win, perhaps thinking that Sunday could be his chance to bust that nettlesome cherry. And though I don’t believe your boy Alvaro Bautista has a chance of winning on Sunday, I feel sorry for the guy and think he deserves a mercy podium.
In a textbook example of going with one’s heart over one’s head, I’m saying Petrucci, Dovizioso, Lorenzo and Marquez, top four in that order. All Ducati podium, contrary to my teaser above. Danilo’s first win. But Marquez extends his lead in the championship anyway, thinking strategically, winning when he’s not winning, keeping the shiny side up. Thinking, always thinking…
We’ll have results here bright and early on Sunday morning. And when I say “here” I mean on my computer and in my Sent Mail. MO will post the results in their leisurely fashion sometime later in the day. Visit my blog (if you can find it) to read the unedited copy (sans photos) early. Then come back to MO for the conversation.
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