MotoGP 2016 Phillip Island Preview

Sadly, the race for the 2016 title is over, and we/I congratulate Marc Marquez on his third premier class championship. But the end of the story of 2016 has yet to be written. There will be controversy – will Marquez torment Valentino Rossi during these last three rounds, in the hope of elevating homeboy Jorge Lorenzo? There will be paint-trading in the turns. There will continue to be the races-within-the-race that capture so many people’s attention. There will be Danilo Petrucci vs. Scott Redding. There will be crashes and run-offs and mistakes by guys operating at the outer limits of human endurance, testing the laws of physics at every turn. What’s not to like?

2013: Lorenzo won comfortably over Dani Pedrosa, with Rossi, Cal Crutchlow and Alvaro Bautista (on the satellite Gresini Honda) gripped in a hair-raising battle for third that saw the veteran Rossi beat Crutchlow and his LCR Honda by .11 seconds while Crutchlow pipped the Gresini pilot by .053, the blink of an eye. The race marked the first Australian Grand Prix in seven years not to feature Casey Stoner at the top of the podium. Marquez took a cheap DQ when, fighting for the lead, he neglected to pit in time, as Bridgestone, who ordered the mandatory mid-race pit stop, struggled mightily to provide the teams with safe rubber up against a new, abrasive and untested racing surface. Even Race Direction was unable to keep Marquez out of the title in his rookie year.

2014: Marquez crashes out of a four second lead on Lap 18 as his Bridgestone front seems to turn to ice. 23 riders start the race; 14 finish. Thus relieved of the pesky Catalan sophomore, Valentino Rossi led a trio of Yamaha M1s over the line, joined on the podium by Lorenzo and premier class podium virgin Bradley Smith, who whipped his Tech 3 Yamaha to his first premier class podium. Ever. None of it really mattered, as Marquez left Down Under ahead of chaser Lorenzo by 18 points on the way to his second world championship. In case we’ve neglected to mention it in the past, Phillip Island is a Yamaha/ Ducati kind of place.

2015: The Pramac Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix had something for everyone. Repsol Honda defending double world champion Marquez, in his season of discontent, laid down an historic last lap to steal the victory from compatriot Lorenzo. The Yamaha pilot trailed his teammate Rossi by 18 coming in and was blessed that day by a statement performance from factory Ducati (then #1) Andrea Iannone, who slipped past Rossi one more time on the final lap and onto the podium, trimming Rossi’s lead over Lorenzo to 11 points heading for Sepang and Round 17. What a difference a year made for Iannone, just twelve months ago the fair-haired child of Ducati Corse; this year a refugee to a possibly apprehensive Suzuki operation.

Such is the case with the brothers Espargaro. A competition which undoubtedly started when younger brother Pol was still in diapers continues today as older brother Aleix tries to keep up with little bro. At some point in the past, younger brother took the upper hand over big brother; glad I wasn’t there for that. Pol, on the satellite Yamaha, brings a 24-point lead over the fraternal factory Suzuki into Round 16 and appears set to rub it in to Aleix’s face for the fourth year in a row.

Last year, on the same equipment, Pol was +9. In 2014, Pol, still on the Tech 3 bike, with Aleix on the doomed Forward Racing Yamaha, put another 10 points on his sib. In 2013, one would say that Pol won the day again, taking the Moto2 championship, while Aleix, slugging it out in the premier class on terrible ART hardware, claimed a decent 11th place finish. Advantage Pol.

There’s new digs for each next year: Pol finally gets his factory ride with KTM, while Aleix moves down to the Gresini factory Aprilia, not yet competitive in the post-Dall’Igna era. The two bikes should be relatively competitive with each other, meaning that while the colors on the leathers may change, the appeal of an opportunity to give your brother a wet willie won’t. MotoGP thrives on rivalries, even the friendlies.

Your boy Kevin Schwantz, world champion in 1993 in the 500cc two stroke era when men were men and women were glad of it, continues to milk notoriety from his reputation and is now approaching 23 years, more or less, of living off the fat. Journalists still seek his opinions on moto racing and he is always willing to share them. Bring the photographer.

Anyway, over at someothersite.com, Schwantz was asked about his impressions of Jack Miller, stating his belief the young Australian would become some kind of great rider in time. (Assuming he still possesses all of his body parts when that time arrives.) He also conceded that Marc Marquez “impresses” him, what with three MotoGP titles by age 23 and all.

This, you see, is exactly the kind of stuff the I loathe. Some guy whose glory days are way behind him, dispensing faint praise re the talents of riders, at least in the case of #93, would beat them like a drum on an identical equipment/same age basis. But we’re not hating on it because it interests us. We’re kind of going on and on about it because Marquez won the frigging title last week and we need something to rant about.

The domino effect engendered by the injury to factory Ducati rider Iannone continues in place this week, as Hector Barbera gets to wreck another brand new GP16 while Mike Jones takes his seat with the Avintia Ducati team. Barbera and Jones were the last two riders to finish at Motegi, the Spaniard finishing outside the points due to an early mishap, whereas Jones finished a lap down but with his paint intact. I imagine the bosses would prefer the latter to the former.

Lorenzo, Rossi and Marquez each won here recently, Rossi the beneficiary of Marquez’ careless crash out of a four-second lead in 2014. For the Yamaha teammates, they have attached blinders regarding whatever’s up with Marquez and are dialed in on one another, second place for the season and a load of machismo at stake. Just as last year, Rossi enjoys a narrow lead over Lorenzo with the latter wanting to arrive at Ducati in one piece but wanting to beat Rossi more. So, it will be a great battle this time out. Whatever happens thereafter we’ll take, too.

Conditions at Phillip Island this weekend are expected to be rough, with a 100% chance of rain on Friday giving way to clear skies on Sunday. It’ll be the temps and the wind which will take its toll on riders and lap times, as temps are expected below 60° with cold northwest winds steady in the high teens, with stronger gusts. A perfect weekend for Marc Marquez to lay low but an imperfect setup for Lorenzo and Rossi, who must face off against one another in the teeth of the gale at perhaps the fastest track on the calendar. The hint of rain spells advantage Rossi.

The race once again runs in the middle of the night in North America. We will have results and analysis right here on Sunday afternoon.