Deja-vu

[MOKE1K]

From Bowling Balls To Chinese Fireworks: Deja-Vu At H-D?
by dean adams Superbikeplanet


If your perspective on Harley-Davidson starts in, say back in 1985 and runs to the present, then the current state of "The Motor Company" has got to be nothing less than shocking.

Harley's sales are slower than an arthritic old man rising from bed on a cold Milwaukee morning. A growing cottage industry is repossessing Harley-Davidsons. Their once high-flying stock price—it has risen from record lows, but—is still just a shell of its former self.

For more than a decade, Harley could seemingly do little wrong. They sold every bike they produced, dealers had waiting lists for product and nearly everyone in the Motor Company's giant supply chain made bales of cash.

Contrast that with Harley-Davidson's current condition: stock price hovering at $28, sales are down double-digit and dealers are selling bikes below retail price, if they are selling them at all.

Harley-Davidson's stock did make a small comeback this week, but the bump was based on take-over rumors. While the rumors of Harley-Davidson being taken over in a leveraged buy-out were probably false, one of the many downsides of a relatively small stock price is that your company becomes an increasingly tasty morsel for someone much larger.

Currently, it would cost over six and a half billion dollars to take over Harley, an enormous amount of money even to the Chinese concerns who many insiders feel are waiting to pounce.

Looking at 2010 Harley with 1999 eyes does show the iconic giant swaying punch-drunk. However, for anyone who saw Harley in their infamous AMF days, pre-Evo' engine or in 1978 - 1980, when you almost felt that the last Harleys made were literally sure to be the last ones ever, 2010 doesn't seem that bad.

At least not yet.

[seruzawa]

Does this mean we'll be seeing fewer Rubbies in years to come?

[The_AirHawk]

Originally Posted by seruzawa

Does this mean we'll be seeing fewer Rubbies in years to come?

Aren't they the ones that keep coming on here and attempting to sell their bikes for what they owe on 'em, but we merely mock their incredibly high price?

[sarnali2]

Originally Posted by The_AirHawk

Aren't they the ones that keep coming on here and attempting to sell their bikes for what they owe on 'em, but we merely mock their incredibly high price?

Umm yeah, those would be the ones.......


Focusing on Harleys downward sales trend is only part of the picture. Suzuki isn't even importing bikes this year, Honda, Yamaha and Kawasaki sales are down across the board. About the only ones with sales increases are Triumph .......The economy is in the tank right now and discretionary sales will always take the biggest hit.

I went for a ride yesterday after work, it was clear and almost 70, I saw almost endless streams of bikes, 90% of them Harleys. The brands popularity hasn't fallen off only the ability of some people to buy them. Once the economy picks up and people start making money their sales will pick back up as well. No mystery there.

[MOKE1K]

Agreed, somethings got to give sooner or later. Everyones sales are down right now.I frequent my old shop from time to time and they always say, yeah were doing alright were selling?

[mscuddy]

All you see in LALA land are sport bikes and Harleys. Every now and then a dual-sport, or a super motard, but 99.9% are all Harleys or something with a full fairing.

I was in Arizona a few weeks ago, nothing but Harleys. And the riders had no helmets either. I might move there myself...also gun racks full of rifles and shotguns in the rear window of pick-up trucks (Fords & Dodges mostly).

Ah, out in Arizona, where the bad men are, and the only thing to guide you is the evening stars...

[Kenneth_Moore]

Originally Posted by sarnali2

Umm yeah, those would be the ones.......


Focusing on Harleys downward sales trend is only part of the picture. Suzuki isn't even importing bikes this year, Honda, Yamaha and Kawasaki sales are down across the board. About the only ones with sales increases are Triumph .......The economy is in the tank right now and discretionary sales will always take the biggest hit.

I went for a ride yesterday after work, it was clear and almost 70, I saw almost endless streams of bikes, 90% of them Harleys. The brands popularity hasn't fallen off only the ability of some people to buy them. Once the economy picks up and people start making money their sales will pick back up as well. No mystery there.

Unlike the 70's, today HD makes a quality product. Although, at Everglades Park today, there was a new Vulcan whateveritis that looks like an Ultra Glide Classic parked next to my friend's FLHTCU, They were so similar it was eerie. Yet the Kawi is $17k, and the HD is $27k. That's a stunning diffference.

[seruzawa]

Originally Posted by Kenneth_Moore

Unlike the 70's, today HD makes a quality product. Although, at Everglades Park today, there was a new Vulcan whateveritis that looks like an Ultra Glide Classic parked next to my friend's FLHTCU, They were so similar it was eerie. Yet the Kawi is $17k, and the HD is $27k. That's a stunning diffference.

Yeah but Harley probably sells more $27K bikes than Kawasaki does $17K Vulcans.

[longride]

"Yet the Kawi is $17k, and the HD is $27k."

I think you need to sharpen your pencil a bit. Woodstock Harley has 2010 Ultras for $18,999 + tax and license. Any color. I was just there last week and my buddy was considering buying one.

[sarnali2]

$27 for a CVO maybe, otherwise someone got seriously greased.