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Old 09-16-2001, 09:52 PM   #11
KPaulCook
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Default Re: look at the chart you yahoo :) be an EAGLE not a crow.

my html reference was a long term chart of the S&P 500. The chart suggests you jackbird are being a little short sided, have you been spooked. If you cut and paste the html into your browser up comes a chart which shows the long term trend of the S&P 500 (notice the chart is log scale i.e. geometric for you non engineers). Compare that with a chart of Tbills or Bonds or any fixed rate investment. Most of the charts aren't even log scale. As var as overvalued stocks there are alot of stocks in the S&P who P/E ratios below 20. Boeing is an example. I agree with you about NASDAQ and the dot coms being overvalued. However, the bulk of the economy is not these companies. So Jackbird become an EAGLE i.e the only bird not afraid of a storm. Come join the rest us eagles BUY BUY

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Old 09-17-2001, 06:51 AM   #12
jackbird
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Default Re: look at the chart you yahoo :) be an EAGLE not a crow.

Actually I found a federally insured bond fund that pays 3 per cent and keeps me liquid. Like Warren Buffet, I have my eye out for bargains. Anything to do with airliners is off my list though. If I were serious about trying to profit from this situation I would be selling short like so many others seem to be doing. I am not out to profit from tragedy but continue to follow goals tailored to my situation. "Cherry Picking" might be a good name for my equity strategy these days.

No Risk, No Profit, unless you understand hedging better than I do. Looks like markets around the world sank around 5% so far today. This is one of those times I hate to be so right.

I have flown a lot through storms, and can say better than most, that eagles actually avoid storms.

That's sort of what I advise to fellow fiscal flyers.

If you don't see that there's a great black cloud dead ahead... ... ...Good Luck.



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Old 09-17-2001, 07:23 AM   #13
SeanAlexander
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Default Re: A Word from the Wise

Lets save these posts, for 18months and then look back and see who is laughing. (I'm guessing that it won't be Jackbird... he won't be broke, but he will have missed a hell of a ride.)
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Old 09-17-2001, 08:09 AM   #14
jackbird
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Default Dang! Forgot to lead last post with funny Subject.

I know about long term trends, but I have a different approach to investing than is usually advised although it's done by the smart money, and that is to try to keep gains made in up market cycles by keeping them safe and intact through the downturns, and then reinvesting when the market seems to have bottomed out. Where the bottom is, is now the hot question all around the world. History does provide a guide. Price / Earnings is an excellent yardstick. Depending which measure is used, average P/E of the s+p 500 is around 30. Average over past century ~=14.
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Old 09-17-2001, 08:26 AM   #15
jackbird
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Default Love a nice up and down ride ... on my bike

There will be great investment opportunity in motorcycle stocks immediately following the long-predicted Japanese financial disaster, which the terror incident may actually precipitate.



18 months from now I could open Jack's Investment College and Font of Free Advice but now I'm just another opinion.
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Old 09-17-2001, 08:49 AM   #16
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Default More Free Advice. Worth at least twice its cost.

...current average p/e divided by historic average p/e is very likely to equal current overvaluation, or where the real bottom is likely to be, which is lower even than that.

Put into numbers: 30/14=~2.148. That means the average share price of issues in the s+p could well drop to the average over the last century which is 46 per cent of where they are now.

I hope to still be alive when the market turns up again. A factor against it is America's current accounts deficit. Most of the off-the-books part of the global economy has helped keep the dollar strong and relative valuations high, at least so far.

May you all live long prosperous lives with lots of great riding and no bad falls.
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Old 09-17-2001, 09:34 AM   #17
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Default Fascinating!

Very interesting posts I must say. I find it so because I'm only 22 years old and just recently, got involved in my firms 401k plan. My father has big dollars and is heavily engrossed in the market. When I showed him my plan he said it was a good idea for me since I'm so young, but he wouldn't offer any real advice for me. He's always been a learn from your own actions/mistakes type of guy. I've basicaly invested in highly volitive funds. Don't ask which ones, because I've got no idea really. I get statements every quarter that area more or less Greek to me. However, I'm taking more interest recently. Not because of last weeks tradgedy, but even before that. I want to know what my money is doing for me and how I can be more involved.

On a lighter note, my heart truly does go out to all the families who lost loved ones and friends. My Uncle Joseph, I found out was supposed to have a meeting with some financial people last Tuesday afternoon. He's fine, he wasn't there when tradgedy struck, he was on the train from New Haven, CT. But, it makes you stop and think. God bless.
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Old 09-17-2001, 10:27 AM   #18
HyperBusa
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Default Re: A Word from the Wise

I did not sell today, but I DID buy some. Not a whole lot, but I did buy WM and it's actually up $1.50. Woohoo!
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Old 09-17-2001, 12:02 PM   #19
jackbird
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Default Next Day: Defense Industry Stocks Rise, all else falls

To me that's profiteering, which I'm fortunate enough not to have to do.

I worry about all motorcycle companies, especially the Japanese ones. I love both my Harley and my Honda Super Blackbird but I would be less thrilled about a Honda-Davidson. Hope they all avoid troubles like those in the car biz.
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Old 09-18-2001, 05:20 AM   #20
lazy1
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Default Re: A Word from the Wise

minime, i think the phrase is 'a word TO the wise'.

while i'm always glad to read someone's opinion, it

seems a little inconsistent to describe mr. sands as

'a punk kid' and 'wise' in the same piece. it might

not be out of line to describe him as 'wise' when it

comes to brake pads or tire choices, but when it

comes to investment advice? i don't think so.

don't get me wrong, i'm sure he's a great guy and i

believe you when you say he's got a big heart, but

let me suggest that MO leave the investment strategies

to those guys with the funny little charts and the

inside information. stick to what you do best, like

kissing the butt of big business which------wait a

minute here------on second thought mr. sands'

article fits right in with the rest of your program.

good job!!!
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