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cda 01-04-2007 06:30 PM

Tiered License Won't Save Many in Washington
Gabe, thanks for an interesting topic :)

According to the report:

"One-third of fatalities from 1993 to 2004 ... did not have a valid motorcycle endorsement." 43% of the fatalities from 1993-2002 had alcohol listed as a contributing factor.

Let's see...

33% non-valid endorsement

43% alcohol contributing

If both completely overlap you have 43% total. If there is no overlap between the two statistics you have a total of 76%. I could not find the real number in the report but neither 43% nor 76% total seems likely for the two combined factors. Taking the average we end up with 59.5% which is merely a guess but within the range of the 43%-76% explained. That would imply that it is completely possible that almost 60% of the fatalities in the Washington study were likely violating the laws by the mere act of riding. From that it might be concluded that a mandatory tiered license program would have almost zero mortality effect on that 60% (actually 43%-76% from the report) of dead lawbreakers who seem to ignore things like laws (including tier licensing laws). I think we can safely assume that the remaining non-lawbreaking 40% (24%-57% from the report) likely had some mix other driver/animal/debris at fault.

It appears likely that tiered licensing would seem to have NO impact on the majority of the rider fatalities in Washington.

Speaking of statistics... If a state implements a mandatory helmet law and miles ridden drops to 50% but fatalities are down a whopping 25% other than "those that would like to see murdercycles banned even if it would just save one life" who would think that motorcycle safety has improved when fatalities are actually up 50% per mile ridden! Without accurate per mile ridden data what does a post-mandatory helmet law reduction in fatalities mean??? For motorcycle "safety improvements" statistics to be valid I am at a loss how per mile ridden can be left out.

Comparing minimally trained US riders to highly trained riders that just happen to live within a tiered license jurisdiction is not proof that tiered licensing works.

Banning is the only way to slow down stupid people trying to kill themselves. They will still succeed but you will have destroyed a very enjoyable activity in a failed attempt to save a few of the stupid from themselves.

For an 18 year old with clean record and a 1 year motorcycle endorsement getting Hayabusa insurance should be cost prohibitive but it isn't. $2645/yr (1st quote I found - shop around kid and maybe get a better deal) for a 1999 'Busa in my jurisdiction. Insurance companies are not rational. And if you believe your insurance rate will go down after tiered license laws are passed I have some Florida swamp land to sell you too.

Significant increases in training with appropriate price reductions in insurance to encourage training and reduce claims seems like a whole lot more bang for your buck than an expensive intrusive limited value tiered license system. Of course if you goal was to reduce the number of miles ridden and riders on the road you might have a good start with a tier license system.

Oh and of course extensive training for the cagers would save countless pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists. Tell them you will raise their test requirements and fees and see how long you keep your job as a politician. ;)

But seriously in Washington in 2004 (52) FIFTY-TWO people died unintentionally or by accident in the "All Transport" (which includes motorcycles) category named "unspecified". HELLO can we put a stop to the aliens just zapping people dead from their outpost in outer space (or whatever it is that is causing them "unspecifieds" to die). Unspecified deaths are real people too!

cda 01-04-2007 06:48 PM

$2645/yr quote was FULL coverage
The $2645/yr quote mentioned for the 18 year old with 1 year under his belt was FULL coverage. Minimum insurance for his Busa would be $525 for 1 year or $41.57 monthly.

Dangerousdave_2 01-04-2007 06:51 PM

Re: debridement
Not sucessful, I'll wager.

schizuki 01-04-2007 06:52 PM

Re: Tiered License Won't Save Many in Washington
Slam-dunk. Factual, logical, and comprehensive. You covered every point perfectly.

Dangerousdave_2 01-04-2007 06:55 PM

Re: Power to Wait
I think you probably adjust after a bit, but my first fully faired motorcycle tried to kill me in exactly that way. Too busy to look at the speedo, and so you go by sights, sounds, and the seat of your pants to calculate if you're coming into a corner too hot. The sound part was off, see.

schizuki 01-04-2007 06:56 PM

Re: Tiered License Won't Save Many in Washington
I'm not giving you my t-shirt, though.

Gabe, got any extras for this fellow?

Dangerousdave_2 01-04-2007 07:00 PM

Re: Power to Wait
"Always remember, your equipment was supplied by the lowest bidder."

Dangerousdave_2 01-04-2007 07:05 PM

Re: Based on my experiences in a country with tiered licensing...
Kinda like falling on a grenade for your buddies, eh?

cda 01-04-2007 07:44 PM

"there oughta be a law"
"there oughta be a law"

I believe that is the state motto for California.

I also believe they own the trademark on it.

We may both owe a fee to California for merely using it. :(

Cagers are expensive. Motorcyclist are not - mostly due to only 8 million riders (think I read that in the AMA magazine) and lightweight vehicles.

"Safe as possible" is an extreme knocking on the door of banning. Careful as you approach.

The_Boy 01-04-2007 09:16 PM

Re: Power to Wait
The cars themselves changed... If you look a what happened a few years ago, the camaro got killed off, the mustang was dying. The new hot rod was something the insurance companies didn't see coming. A honda civic...

Other cars like the new charger are out of the price range of todays youth.

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