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Old 01-20-2005, 08:19 AM   #51
sportbike_pilot
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

No it doesn't because the current data is voluminous enough that it doesn't need data from the two centuries ago to show a trend.



While Von Storch is well known he is only one voice and not everyone agrees with him even about his paleoclimatological models. Again there is no serious debate among scientists about the current state of global warming.



-sbp
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Old 01-20-2005, 08:23 AM   #52
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Default Re: I just noticed this

It's kind of funny to be in a "clique" which is open to everybody in the world except one particluar individual.
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Old 01-20-2005, 08:45 AM   #53
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Default Re: I just noticed this

Hey, no problem. Now let's go beat up Kpaul after study hall.







(Kidding, Kpaul, just kidding.)
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Old 01-21-2005, 04:27 PM   #54
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

I've got quite a few photos from this event on my website; also a bunch from last year's Hansen Dam Rally, too. You can see them at www.joeberkphotography.com



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Old 01-22-2005, 05:09 PM   #55
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

"Again there is no serious debate among scientists about the current state of global warming."



And in the 1970's, there was no serious debate among scientists about the oncoming pollution-caused Ice Age.



Let's review the last thirty years of man-made-climate-change theory:



1) Pollution is blocking sunlight, lowering global temperatures and leading to a new Ice Age. We're going to freeze. (1970's)



2) Pollution is creating an insulating blanket, raising global temperatures and leading to a greenhouse effect. We're going to burn. (1990's)



3) Pollution is creating a greenhouse effect, raising temperatures in some places and lowering them in others, which will first warm everything, and then lead to a new Ice Age. We're going to freeze. (current)



Boy, scientists are hip. They've hopped onto the '70's retro craze.



Color me unimpressed.



Wake me up when you've got your story straight. Until then, don't expect me to support expensive policy changes while you guys are still tasting all of the porridge.

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Old 01-23-2005, 02:45 PM   #56
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

I don't disagree with what Martin is saying. His point is that we are likely in an extreme warming trend. But he does feel that the causes for this are unclear. My point is that, while it is entirely possible that we do have a significant trend, I still question how close we can get can determine this with any certainty when we are relying on complex temperature reconstructions to compare the current situation with the past, especially since the variations are fractions of a single degree.



We had a discussion about institutional bias here some time ago. Maybe that's why we don't have much debate in the scientific community. Could it be that when one exceptionally brilliant person advances a theory it's natural for the rank and file experts in the field to accept it, maybe because they don't have the insight or resources to see its flaws? I can't say for sure because I'm not a scientist. But doesn't the monumental discovery many times come from the minority view?



In the 1970s the FDA advanced the idea that a relatively small amont of salt intake could cause hypertension in otherwise normal people. They actually promoted it as fact, but it was based on flawed research. Up until fairly recently, not many people questioned it. Guess what? It's not true. Most people can safely consume far more salt than the FDA claims. But even today, the FDA maintains this idea and most people believe it's true.



We only know the truth because some people began to question it.



We likely have global warming of some kind. We may even have man-made global warming.

But no one still knows what it all means. And I don't think we should stop asking questions.
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Old 01-24-2005, 05:09 AM   #57
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

Here's another perspective:



http://www.examiner.ie/pport/web/wor...bBP-2fa91M.asp



It says that a team of American climatologists theorize that human activity has caused global warming, and has saved off an Ice Age.



So, efforts to reduce it could be catastrophic.
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Old 01-24-2005, 10:57 PM   #58
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

Now that is really a different perspective. But who knows, there are so many variables invovled in the study of climate, I wonder how we can be so sure about anything.
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Old 02-02-2005, 05:04 AM   #59
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

Hence the misperceptions garnered from getting your science filtered through the popular press (or maybe comic books, in this case).



Although all of the items in your list have been advanced as possibilities no one knows anything for certain except the CURRENT state of climate change which is that the world is indisputably in a warming trend, and one which is beginning to increase exponentially. It seems very likely that this is linked to the rapid increase in greenhouse emissions from many sources coupled with human activities which are changing the planets infrared signature. That's what it says in my quote, which you faithfully reproduced at the head of your rant. Did you read it? Maybe then you'd understand the concept of getting things "straight" a little better.



Also there are a lot of smart folks involved in any scientific enterprise so one person's view, no matter how high of a profile they have, is just that - one person's view (Ask Hawking and the string theory guys about this). Science is based on a consensus of opinion and the current consensus on global climate change is very clear.



-sbp
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