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Old 01-19-2005, 09:26 PM   #41
pdad13
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

I did. It seems that the scientists can't agree on that, either. I also uncovered some disagreement on the temperature reconstructions for the last 1000-2000 years. Seems the methods that the IPCC uses to determine historical temperatures (mainly tree ring analysis) are in question. In a recent issue of Science, Hans Van Storch claims that the climate fluctuations that have been estimated through these means may have been underestimated by a factor of two OR MORE. If it's true, that's pretty far off. That's all I've been saying.









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Old 01-19-2005, 11:05 PM   #42
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Default I just noticed this

"So pardon me, but to claim that there is no global warming in spite of the abundance of evidence to the contrary reflects a curious lack of either will or ability to see the obvious."



Sorry, I'm up working late, I'm a little bleary-eyed and I didn't read the whole post. Let's get it on!



Okay, maybe not. Seriously, Martin, while I would be hesitant to go toe-to-toe with you on any scientific subject, and from what I know of you, I would certainly respect your opinion, I would say that your conclusions about me are utterly wrong. A majority consensus in the scientific community does not equate to fact. If it did, we'd all still believe the world was flat.



Being that temperature reconstruction is very tricky business, a layman like me can certainly imagine that there are quite possibly errors in the record. While I have a decent knowledge of the cases for and against global warming, ten minutes of reasearch uncovered a very recent article in Science by Hans Von Storch (September 30, 2004) claims the "scientifically accepted method for reconstructing historical climate used by Mann and supported by the IPCC (tree rings, ice cores, etc.) is terribly flawed. And while others have attacked this method before with limited effect, Von Storch seems, at least, to be taken very seriously. According to his findings, the temperature fluctuations over the last 1000 years have been underestimated by a factor of 2 or more. This would indeed call into question the significance of our current warming trend.



I'm not saying he's definetely correct, I'm just saying that there are serious scientists that are asking the same dumb questions as a slug like me.



Don't get me started on the AIDS epedemic in Africa, where the WHO is diagnosing people without blood tests...
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Old 01-20-2005, 02:29 AM   #43
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

Well I am originally from freeking Finland and my opinion about the global warming is that the more the better. Too bad if the Golf stream stops though. There may be an effect on the riding season.



- cruiz-euro
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Old 01-20-2005, 04:11 AM   #44
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

It is currently possible to measure temperature very accurately on a global scale - to within a tenth of a degree or so. The farther back you go the harder this is to do - pre WWII it gets more difficult. Pre 20th centruy you have to rely on paleoentological data, which is more difficult to interpret but can still yield results down to a degree or so.



You local TV weather comes to you from a reporter hired for their looks who joined a meteorological society for $50 who reads you a forecast product generated in a building in PA for the entire US. You are much better off going to the NOAA or NWS websites which tend to have more accurate forecast products.



Also - temperature can vary radically both horizontally and vertically over very short distances. In the summertime, for instance. the difference in temperature between your feet and your head may vary by as much as 30 degrees F on a really hot day.



cheers



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Old 01-20-2005, 04:22 AM   #45
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Default Re: I just noticed this

I didn't think that you were pushing a scientific POV, just stating what the common public perception is. And about that you are entirely correct. That is why I emphasized scientific in my post.



Global warmins is one of several issues (evolution is another example) over which there is virtually no serious scientific debate - yet in the public's mind there is a huge controversy . I think that it's fair to say that we know less about gravity than we do about either evolution or global worming, yet no one questions that, probably because it does not get crossways with political or religious interests.



Sorry if I did not word my response delicately enough. Like all of us sometimes I pull the trigger a little to quickly. Besides I can't be teeing off on other "cool clique" members.!



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Old 01-20-2005, 04:30 AM   #46
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

Hans Van Storch is a well respected guy and though he thinks the current extrapolative models nead tweaking I doubt seriously that he disagrees with the overall picture.
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Old 01-20-2005, 05:32 AM   #47
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

Okay, if we can only measure pre-20th century temperatures to within a degree or so, then wouldn't the current warming trend of .04C-.8C fall within a margin of error? Isn't the Global Warming theory based on comparing temperatures from the from the 20th & early 21st centuries to pre-20th century temps? I suppose you could argue that the reconstructed 19th century temps are nearly spot on, therefore we know that we have a significant increase from the 19th century to present, but that doesn't tell us whether we haven't had similar or even greater spikes in the past--epecially since the IPCC-endorsed weather reconstruction methods have recently come under serious critisism.



And yes, I know, local TV weather people are just talking heads. I really wasn't referring to them, I was referring to my two weather channels and online sources that report the different temps from the same weather station. I was trying to make a point about variations. But hell, it was like 3:00 am, and it's really not relevant now.



I'm not trying to be a pain, I'm genuinly curious about this stuff. Oh yeah, really cool old Brit bikes!
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Old 01-20-2005, 05:47 AM   #48
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

A factor of two or more is well beyond tweaking. Actually, he thinks the Mann (I call them that for now) methods are seriously off of the mark. Von Storch and his researchers claim that there is way too much data noise in the methods to yield accurate temperatures and that actual pre-20th century historical fluctuations may be far greater than the "hockey stick" curve illustrates. I think he also made a statement that the Mann methods were were basically being forced down everyone's throats by the U.N./IPCC (to your point, the politics again).



I don't know that he disagrees with the overall picture, but if he's even half-right, it certainly calls the whole theory into question.
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Old 01-20-2005, 07:39 AM   #49
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

Who cares about this stupid science stuff? We gotta do something now! Anything! Who even cares if it's the right thing? We gotta act now!
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Old 01-20-2005, 09:15 AM   #50
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Default Re: Hansen Dam Britbike Rally

'zactly.
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