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Old 10-13-2005, 03:51 AM   #11
Neal
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Default Re: HD not dead yet.

Price to earniongs ratio........in other words if my stock price goes up but my earnings stay the same,the P/E ratio goes up. The lower the ratio,the better buy the stock is(at least thats the basic theory) But good point, this is a motorcycle forum,not a stock market forum. Another point is that ever since the tech bubble of the 90's, the market has not been rational and traditional indicators dont necessarily foretell whats gonna happen to the stock. Bottom line at this time is: HD is a strong company facing challenges due to an aging customer base and uncertain economy related to high fuel prices. How well they rise to the challenge remains to be seen....many other US companies face similiar challenges.
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Old 10-13-2005, 05:01 AM   #12
sportbikebandit
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Default Re: HD not dead yet.

Yep good analysis. It's undervalued! At the current P/E ratio the stock price can rise quite a bit to get to the standard watermark of 20. Damn too bad I sold my stock and the kid's scholarship only covered tuition.
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Old 10-13-2005, 05:16 AM   #13
pdad13
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Default Re: HD not dead yet.

Well said, Neal. And probably very true.
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Old 10-13-2005, 05:20 AM   #14
bboule
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Default Re: HD not dead yet.

Can't believe they are saying uncertainty about gas prices has any effect on whether or not someone would buy a H-D.



If I understand correctly every single model from Harley has about the same fuel economy as a Toyota Prius and they generally beat the higher powered foreign bikes.



Why not reconsider the pickup truck or SUV purchase and just get the H-D.



The other weird thing about the stock market here is that if H-D is making profits why worry. Investors are so incredibly greedy these days. Even if H-D shrunk in size, if they reduced inventory and production by an appropriate amount they could maintain profits and continue to do well.
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Old 10-13-2005, 05:33 AM   #15
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Default Re: HD not dead yet.

Well, if anyone was convinced that H-D was on its way to a swift collapse, maybe they're a bit delusional. The stock market can be a fairly innaccurate way to judge a company's overall health.



But to deny that H-D will face significant challenges in the near future is also wishful thinking.



The simple fact is that H-D will need to continue to develop new product to meet the wants of a changing customer base--and they'll need to connect with them on an emotional level.



"Everything is marketing and marketing is everything." Almost nothing else matters unless you get that right.
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Old 10-13-2005, 05:47 AM   #16
triumph900
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Default Re: HD not dead yet.

HD did lower the prices on some equivalent models for the 2006 model year. Example -



2005 Black FXDI (injected as an option) MSRP $12,395 (11,995 + 400(FI))



2006 Black FXDI standard injection $12,195, and that includes the 6 speed transmission as well as other upgrades.



I think HD will keep itself priced competitivly and will continue to improve it's lineup even faster than they have the last couple of years.

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Old 10-13-2005, 05:51 AM   #17
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I think the gas price rational is that if gas continues to rise, people will spend more on gas and less on toys. Most Americans don't use bikes as a primary means of transport. When money gets tight, boats and bikes are often the first things to go.
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Old 10-13-2005, 06:21 AM   #18
Pat_ZRX
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Default Re: HD not dead yet.

Reductions in discreationary income play havoc on the purchasing plans of motorcycle buyers more than gas prices.



I'm afraid more and more of our discreationary income goes to Chinese workers everyday. The 50 some odd billion trade deficit we rack up every month does not help.
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Old 10-13-2005, 06:25 AM   #19
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Default Re: HD not dead yet.

Looks like I was right about a "buy opportunity" and checking out the P/E ratio last time this tedious topic came up. Good job, Neal. You nailed it.



Now wake me when something worth yakking about comes up.
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Old 10-13-2005, 06:26 AM   #20
maladg
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Default Re: HD not dead yet.

Agree with first point. Second point: some truth in short run...Backa$$wards in long run. Back to Econ 101 with you!
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