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Old 08-10-2005, 07:25 AM   #51
gniewko
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Default Re: study numbers not informative - what is the RATE?

Nope. The article says "in the three years following Florida's repeal of its mandatory helmet law in 2000, 933 motorcyclists were killed, an 81 percent increase from the 515 bikers killed from 1997 to 1999". The author talks about absolute numbers, not rates. That 81% number is completely meaningless here.
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Old 08-10-2005, 07:27 AM   #52
sportbikebandit
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

Dude you are ignoring the statistics pointed about this study... Does your point pass the common sense test? Not for me doesn't. If I am going to hit a wall or pavement without a helment I know chances are i am going to die....Seems so simple to me...
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Old 08-10-2005, 07:31 AM   #53
mcruz
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

Quote:

"There are few things as stupid as a mandatory helmet law.

We are spending public efforts and money to protect a brain that is idiot enough to not want itself protected."
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Old 08-10-2005, 07:32 AM   #54
ccmun
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Default Re: One

Man, get over the media issue. Your argument is specious. Your libertarian view is quaint, but the fact is more people are dying and getting hurt. It is stupid to not mitigate the danger of riding by wearing a helmet.



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Old 08-10-2005, 07:33 AM   #55
porschennighthawk
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Default Re: OK guys time for a Statistics lesson

<blockquote>This is an excellent statistic because it is normalized (per 1,000 crashes). i.e. you could compare this with other states as well. This stat is independent of the number of bikes on the road i.e. Having more bikes on the road doesn't effect this stat. Wearing a helmet does.</blockquote>



Actually, this isn't nearly as useful a statistic as you claim. The correct statistic to look at, also incorporates the miles driven. When the numbers are normalized by 100 million vehicle miles driven (HMVM), then you get an accurate statistic to look at, because not every owner of a motorcycle drives the same number of miles.



See this link for the true numbers to look at, so you can follow along:



http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd...LTSF/tbl10.htm



Here's some more fodder to think about. Yes, the overall fatality rate is going up, since 1997. Yes, the fatality rate per HMVM is going up since 1997. BUT, there are other things to look at as well.



For instance, the number of registered cycles bottomed out in the mid-90s. In 1997, there were 3,826,373 registered bikes, w/ a fatality rate per 10,000 registered at 55.30. And the Fatalities per HMVM were 20.99.



Now compare that to 2003. There were 5,370,035 registered, 3,661 fatal per 10,000, and 38.38 per HMVM. Comparing them means that yes, fatalities are going up, when compared to 1997.



But let's use our heads a little... What's changed, other than the helmet laws? Total registered motorcycles, rider age, and rider experience. If registrations increase, overall, then you've got many more riders out there with less experience. So lets go back in time a little, to when there's as many bikes on the road as there are now.



Let's look at the last year when motorcycle registrations were over 5 million, and trending upwards to include more "new" riders. The year would be 1981. What's changed since 1981? If you look strictly at the helmet laws (as this BS report did...), helmet laws were basically still in effect in 1981. They're not, now. So looking at the numbers, in 1981, there were 5,831,132 bikes registered. The fatality rate per 10k registered was 84.13. the fatality rate per HMVM was 45.89. Now when you compare "apples to apples", you see that we are nowhere near as fatal in 2003, as it was in 1981. So by faulty logic, I can now say that helmet laws don't make a difference, 'cause look, we're better than the years when helmet laws were in effect...



The fact is this. There hasn't been a comprehensive study on motorcycle crashes, nationwide, since the 1970s. That means by looking strictly at the numbers, you can't conclude that helmet laws have been the only (or even the main) reason for the increase in fatalities. If you want to start assuming, then yeah, you could claim this by only looking at the 90s. But what happens when you look at the 80s? In 1980, most states enacted helmet law repeals. And yet the trend of fatalities was STILL down in the 90s. So tell me why, now, everyone immediately assumes it's because of the helmet laws? The freaking helmet laws haven't been there, nationally, for the entire time of the dive, to the recent increase. There's a lot more going on than just helmets. And until a true study has been done, there's no possible way you can claim helmets are responsible. Are they part of the cause? Maybe. Are there an awful lot of other causes in the mix? Yep.
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Old 08-10-2005, 07:34 AM   #56
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

That's all very clever longride, but as I noted in an above post, the argument isn't black or white, rather is a judgement call between ones right to do as they wish versus cost to society. It is somewhat about protecting the rider yes, but ultimately the burden falls on society. Regardless of paying for their injuries, you in fact may lose a productive member. The argument of all bikes are more dangerous than cars isn't a be all and end all, as presumably driving cars is much more dangerous than if we all were to ride bicycles, but alas that's more dangerous than if we simply all walked. Therefore, we must ban cars and bikes! Where do we end....perhaps we should all crawl. It's not what's more dangerous per se, but is the increased danger justified and worth it. You cannot arive at a purely rational or logical answer to this because it all depends on your risk tolerance. You arbitrarily stop yourself on the slippery slope at your risk tolerance, but not necessarily mine or anyone elses.



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Old 08-10-2005, 07:35 AM   #57
sportbikebandit
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Default You need some coffee dude

"In the institute's report, the motorcycle-crash death rate increased 25 percent in the two years after Florida's law changed, growing from 30.8 deaths to 38.8 deaths per 1,000 crashes."
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Old 08-10-2005, 07:35 AM   #58
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

I think that sums it up...
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Old 08-10-2005, 07:37 AM   #59
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Default Re: Repeal proponents call for more rider training...

The difference that I see is that they can't plead ignorance. They have made a fully informed decision, they know the possible outcomes, and now must live (or not) with the consequences. Since that is the choice they made, I don't feel it is my responsibility to give them hand-outs. They have stated, by riding without a helmet after all these classes they have taught them what a bad idea it is, that they take full responsibility for the results.
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Old 08-10-2005, 07:38 AM   #60
ccmun
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Default Re: One

Man, get over the media issue. Your argument is specious. Your libertarian view is quaint, but the fact is more people are dying and getting hurt. It is stupid to not mitigate the danger of riding by wearing a helmet.



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