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Old 08-10-2005, 12:32 PM   #151
EvoVII
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

Well, I'd rather be a moron than...except.....uh, what's the word? You're right, I am a moron.
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Old 08-10-2005, 12:44 PM   #152
m_t_yeo
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

I feel like I'm back in my intro stats class ...



More newbies = more crashes. We agree on this, but the number of overall crashes doesn't matter.



1 death in 100 crashes is the same rate of mortality as 10 deaths in 1000 crashes: 1%. You can increase the number of crashes to whatever you want and the death rate won't change unless something changes to make those crashes more fatal.



One could argue that newbs are involved in more fatal crashes just by being newbs, but if you wanted to remove that effect from your statistic, you would compare the mortality rate for x state with no helmet law to y state with a helmet law ... but make sure x and y state saw the same % increase in new riders. If the mortality rate is still different, then you know where the bulk of the statistical effect is coming from - helmets.



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Old 08-10-2005, 12:52 PM   #153
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

Neither article appears to factor in how many new riders have been licensed in the "studies" time frame. We all know motorcycle sales are way up! The Hurt Report reported (this is from memory) that fatal crashes most likely occurred during the first and third year of riding. Sounds like the typical insurance lobbyist BS to me! Who did the NHTSA study???
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:01 PM   #154
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

Evidently, he did. Although, to his credit, it appears he abandoned the practice.
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:03 PM   #155
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

Laws can be situational, though, and can often both protect us and others at the same time. Example: speeding.



A friend of mine was driving to the mountains and came around a bend to see a squid, fully leaned over and obviously speeding, in her lane. It was too late to react and he hit her head on. He died, his bike was spread out over 100m of roadway, her SUV was totalled and she was a wreck. To this day, she dreams about watching that kid die by inches on the pavement in front of her, trying to hold his guts in. She also has never walked the same because she badly broke her leg in the partial rollover of her vehicle.



The posted speed limit was not just there to protect the rider, but also there to protect the driver. His 'right' to speed put both himself and others at risk.



Admittedly, the helmet law leans a LOT more towards indivual safety rather than public safety, but my friend still claims that the psychological damage was many times worse than her slight limp, so should someone who wants to ride without a helmet be able to 'force' a driver to see their brains spilled out over the pavement, knowing they might never be the same again?
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:11 PM   #156
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

"My guess is that one could release 1000 18 year olds riding GSXR 1000s in Florida, all with helmets on, and change the death/crash rate.



Or, by the same token, 1000 50 year olds who have never ridden before on new V-Rods, all with helmets, and increase the death/crash rate. "



But niether of these things happened did they.. What happened that was significant?

Helmet law was repealed....
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:14 PM   #157
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Default Re: Already whipped his argument

You are arguing a losing cause.



Sportbikebandit doesn't have to prove that 100% of the statistical difference comes from the helmet law, just that some of that statistical increase does. Sure, some of the increased death rate could be due to more newbs on the road, more aggressive riding, etc. but arguing about whether the result is 70/20/10 or 80/10/10 or 50/30/20 is moot.



Driving less aggressively saves lives. Experience saves lives. Helmets save lives.



Repealing a helmet law is guaranteed to increase the death rate, we are just quibbling on how much.
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:21 PM   #158
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Default Re: Take two guys.

Did the number of SPEEDERS increase though? Speed is very positively related to mortality in any crash, but increasing the number of riders on the road doesn't automatically increase the number of speeders. For your claim to have an effect on this statistic, there would have to be an increase in the number of speeders before and after the law was put into effect. If 15% sped before and 15% sped afterwards, then speeding could not statistically have an effect.



Do newbies tend to speed more? I honestly don't know ...
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:25 PM   #159
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Default A Breath of Fresh Air and the GPTB

Solace. Your views are refreshing. Yes I get it. I must apoligize for the Gray Pony Tail Brotherhood..(GPTB). They tend to get very personal if you disagree with them. Especially if you are very effective in attacking the argument not the person. Sometimes I think they would rather call them idiots then make your point. You have the patience of Job...
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:29 PM   #160
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Default m_t_yeo is the man, Glad he is here...

"Repealing a helmet law is guaranteed to increase the death rate, we are just quibbling on how much"

You are the man m_t_yeo.



I wish I would of been smart enough to write this awhile back. Do you think it would of made a difference.



Excellent Point m_t_yeo.
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