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Old 08-10-2005, 10:50 AM   #101
sportbikebandit
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Default Re: OK guys time for a Statistics lesson

I don't think so. It was mostly a data dump with little analysis or correlation to the accident death rate. In Computer Science we call that garbage in garbage out...
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Old 08-10-2005, 10:50 AM   #102
gniewko
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Default Re: You need some coffee dude

Yeah, sure, but that number was buried deep in the article. The first thing you see is that 81% number.



Besides, the increase from 30.8 to 38.8 in the fatality rate does not show that the helmet law repeal was the cause of the increase. There are many other factors (unrelated to helmets) that could cause this increase. Causation is very difficult to show with statistics, and pretty much impossible to prove.
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Old 08-10-2005, 10:52 AM   #103
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

"the majority of the motorcycle riding population has shown they are too stupid to make an intelligent decision."



Reading all of the denial of the facts on this page makes me tend to agree with him. I am starting to think that motorcylist have eith lower IQs or just in flat denial...
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Old 08-10-2005, 10:56 AM   #104
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Default Re: You need some coffee dude

What are the other causes dude? Show me the money er casues... You are in denial aren't you?

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Old 08-10-2005, 10:57 AM   #105
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Default Re: It's really simple. Don't make it too complicated..

Pardon my rounding error the increase is more like 25% like the article pointed out.
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Old 08-10-2005, 10:59 AM   #106
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Default Re: One

Solace I admire your restraint. I will try to heed your advice "Attack the argument, not the person".
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Old 08-10-2005, 11:01 AM   #107
gniewko
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Default Re: Deaths up since Florida helmet law repealed

The helmet law is not the only thing that has changed. The most obvious is that there are many more new motorcycle registrations, and thus more new, inexperienced riders. Motorcycles are getting more powerful, heavier (at least the cruisers), and more difficult to handle. I would argue that there are more newbies crashing harder. There is nothing in the stats provided that would help invalidate either hypothesis, so the article is pointless sensationalism.



I'm not saying that repealing the helmet law couldn't have caused an increase in the fatality rate. I'm just saying that the statistics quoted in this article don't show a cause-and-effect relationship, and don't account for even the most obvious alternative explanations. Showing causality with statistics is very, very difficult.



And I would be very wary of the "common sense sanity check". Common sense is very often wrong.
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Old 08-10-2005, 11:12 AM   #108
sportbikebandit
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Default Re: Why your 'stat' means nothing

I'll deal with you latter (with facts and data) right now I have to go back to work.
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Old 08-10-2005, 11:21 AM   #109
gniewko
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Default Re: You need some coffee dude

I'm not in denial, because I have nothing to be in denial about. I always wear a helmet and don't care about helmet laws either way. I'm just annoyed by erroneous use of statistics to make sensational claims.



I provided other possible explanations elsewhere in the thread, but here they are again:



- The number of new motorcycle registrations almost doubled over the past few years. This means that there are more new, inexperienced motorcyclists on the road. Bikes are getting more powerful, heavier (for cruisers), and harder to handle. More newbies are crashing harder, increasing the fatality rate.



- Baby boomers are getting older and retiring in Florida in great numbers, increasing the number of incompetent old drivers who turn left in front of motorcyclists more often. Larger proportion of two-vehicle accidents (as opposed to bikers running off the road by themselves) increases the average crash severity.



- Better weather (or worse weather, take your pick) affecting how much people ride and what types of accidents they get into.



You want me to go on? As I said before, a cause-and-effect relationship is very, very difficult to show with statistics, and if you're not careful about that statistics can be misleading. Here is an interesting (and true) example:



In some North European fishing community (IIRC it was Sweden or Denmark) statisticians noticed a strong correlation between the number of nesting storks and the number of babies being born. No matter how they looked at the data, the correlation was solid. Does that imply that storks bring babies? No. It turned out that there was a hidden variable - stocks of fish. When there was a lot of fish, there were lots of storks feeding on them. And fishermen were making more money, and having more babies. Correlation does not in any way imply causation.



Here is another great example:

http://img217.echo.cx/img217/8462/piratesarecool6iv.jpg

There is a good (inverse) correlation between average global temperatures and the number of pirates. Does one have anything to do with the other? Probably not. Sometimes correlation is just coincidence.



Again, I'm not saying that repealing helmet laws didn't contribute to the increase in the fatality rate. I'm saying that there is no good evidence that it did so, at least none that's presented in this article.
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Old 08-10-2005, 11:23 AM   #110
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Default Re: You need some coffee dude

"The number of new motorcycle registrations almost doubled over the past few years. This means that there are more new, inexperienced motorcyclists on the road. Bikes are getting more powerful, heavier (for cruisers), and harder to handle. More newbies are crashing harder, increasing the fatality rate.



- Baby boomers are getting older and retiring in Florida in great numbers, increasing the number of incompetent old drivers who turn left in front of motorcyclists more often. Larger proportion of two-vehicle accidents (as opposed to bikers running off the road by themselves) increases the average crash severity.



- Better weather (or worse weather, take your pick) affecting how much people ride and what types of accidents they get into.

"



These things affect the accident rate not the death rate dude...
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