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Old 01-10-2007, 11:12 AM   #51
ksquid
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Default ah Ha

Really.... Hmmm Are the days of Harley high resale value over?.. That would be a positive leading indicator validating kpaul's, the GMP, predictions that the market for HDs has peaked.... Thanks for the info.. I'll am thinking about creating a new kPPI, kPPI 2.0, which has cost of ownership factor, resale factor, service intervals. etc...
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:24 AM   #52
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Default Re: Early sign of Geezerdom?

I've got an 03 Warrior. Isn't it a great bike? I almost bought an 03 Softail standard, but the dealer wanted stupid money for a mandatory anniversary gold key package or some crap. Then I saw the Warrior at the Cycle World bike show....Ahhh, just right. Or at least after new pipes, it was.
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:25 AM   #53
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Default Re: ah Ha

Resale values for Hd are becoming more reasonable....as EVERYBODY who watches such things has been predicting. You cant sell 300 plus k units a year and used values keep astronomical. its probable that new bike sales will start to taper off a little....again as MANY people have been predicting. of course we've been predicting this for 5 years so we've been wrong so far. This is far from the Harley collapse that YOu have been predicting. Also, the reasons are very different than what you have theorized.....its not due to poor quality or antiquated engines or declining cruiser popularity in favor of naked sport bikes.. The major immediate challenge harley faces is the proliferation of CHEAPER metric cruisers.
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:37 AM   #54
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Default Re: ah Ha

I think one of the biggest factors in resale value tanking is that the '07's are EFI 96 inchers with 6 speeds. Who is going to spend $15k on a used 88 inch 5 speed when they can get a factory 96 incher, with a rebate which Skagit Harley among others is offering and very attractive financing terms through Harley Credit on new vehicles?



Don't need to be a self proclaimed prophet to figure that one out.

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Old 01-10-2007, 11:43 AM   #55
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Default Re: ah Ha

Interesting. Sounds logical to me..... Probably another last hurrah for the V-Twin thing i.e. making a bigger engine is only a stop gap..
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:52 AM   #56
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Default Re: ah Ha

I agree,this is a significant factor. But market saturation is also a player. Harley is still very strong,but the amazing growth of the last 10 years will be hard to sustain. By the way,I dont think resale value is "tanking". It'ss just dropping to reasonable levels, still higher than cometitors' resale values.
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:52 AM   #57
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Default Re: ah Ha

I thought that the "the boom's gonna end soon" prediction is in more like it's 15th year.
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:58 AM   #58
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Well,Ive only been predicting it since 2003. LOL. I thought sales would level after the anniversary bulge but ive been proven wrong. Now im expecting a leveling off if not a slight drop due to the metric cruiser craze, but Im probably wrong again. I wish I had kept my stock.....I bet KPAUL does too. Course if I had,Id be selling it now and I'd probably be crying in a couple years when my leveling off prediction turns out to be wrong. LOL
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Old 01-10-2007, 12:15 PM   #59
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"I bet KPAUL does too. "

Yep sure do.. You make an excellent point but the metric cruiser craze... I also made the same prediction about SUVs i.e. the market was topping off and then the whole crossover thing started etc. I thought gas prices was going to end SUVs then the hybrid came along. My wife calls me the Great Myopic Prophet
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Old 01-10-2007, 12:16 PM   #60
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Default Re: ah Ha

Add to that, people with enough cash will buy new. Most will be forced to finance and that puts the private party sale at a tough price point.
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