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Old 04-13-2005, 07:43 AM   #1
lukam
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Default Re: Harley Announces Q1 Earnings - Scares a Few

Oh yes, let the Harley haters spread the doom and gloom, because everyone knows that morons know more about the motorcycle industry than anyone at Harley and what they see on their weekend rides can be taken as gospel. Flame away..........
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Old 04-13-2005, 07:44 AM   #2
lukam
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Default Re: Harley Announces Q1 Earnings - Scares a Few

Oh yea my first.......... first post.....
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Old 04-13-2005, 07:54 AM   #3
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Sean, you might want to mention if you hold stock in Harley or not, before we heed your "hold" advise.
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Old 04-13-2005, 08:16 AM   #4
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I know I only watch the stocks I own this close (and those I'm considering). I'd say yes as this was some timely news. Plus, nothing generates more posts on the MO forum than a good HD flame fest. Although the flamenest flamer no longer flames here.
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Old 04-13-2005, 08:54 AM   #5
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And wouldnt he have had a ball with this? Wonder if hes gonna sell his stock?
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Old 04-13-2005, 08:55 AM   #6
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Default Re: Harley Announces Q1 Earnings - Scares a Few

Harley surpassed GM as the vehicle sales leader of the WORLD. So, is there any doubt that Harley is strong? NO. It was an accounting move that will pay in the last quarter. Summer sales will be strong but the 3rd quarter is always the winner for HD. Watch the numbers come in better than expected. I don't ride them, don't own stock but do respect the fact that they are a force in the vehicle sales world. If I had the cash it'd be a great time to pick up shares.
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Old 04-13-2005, 09:06 AM   #7
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Default Re: Harley Announces Q1 Earnings - Scares a Few

Its just amazing to me that HD will sell 329000 bikes...and folk are panicking. In 1985 they sold 36000....in 1995 they sold 105ooo. They have sold over 1.2 million bikes in last 5 years! This is just amazing to me.....where are they all going. ? I dont see how they can maintain this growth but even if sales were to actually dip(imagine the panic then) for a year or so,the company will still be strong. I predicted a dip after the 2003 anniversary year but was wrong....Im still thinking there has to be a dip eventually,but I think the immediate future is still looking good.

By the way,domestic sales of Buell have taken a dip the last 2 years(03 and 04) while foreign sales have increased.
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Old 04-13-2005, 09:22 AM   #8
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iamz, No, I do not hold any shares or options on HDI. In fact, I have no vested interest whatsoever in what their stock price does.



However, as an NASD Series 7, 9, 10, 31, 63, and 65 licensed financial advisor, (now inactive, due to my choosing to leave the indiustry to pursue this career in motojournalism), I do feel qualified to dispense advice on the merits of reacting to market news. In my opinion you buy stock because you believe in that company. You hold that stock for a looooong time and try not to react to short-term news and public panics. If you want to day trade or try to otherwise "time" the market, you must be a much smarter investor than I am, because using old public info as a live trading tool just doesn't seem to work for anyone in the long term. -Sean
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Old 04-13-2005, 09:29 AM   #9
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Default Re: Harley Announces Q1 Earnings - Scares a Few

Note this sentence in the third paragraph of the release:



"Despite our continued optimism for the year, we feel it is prudent to limit short-term production growth, maintaining demand in excess of supply."



Clearly, Harley has a very conscious strategy of manipulating supply and demand to keep prices up. The company knows exactly what it needs to do to maintain long-term profits.
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Old 04-13-2005, 09:36 AM   #10
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Default Re: Harley Announces Q1 Earnings - Scares a Few

Exactly,they could have continued production rates and made 339000 units,but they would have been selling bikes in Sept at below MSRP,thus starting expectations for the future of below MSRP pricing. Better to sell 329000 at MSRP and sell another 330000 or so next year. They havent gotten where they are with bad business decisions.
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