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Old 04-18-2003, 03:50 AM   #41
Neal
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Default Re: Another Record for H-D

Its funny---HD responded to non HD riders and MC mags in an attempt to attract new riders by buying Buell and developing the VROD,.They both are slow sellers yet the traditional bikes that the MC elite thumb their noses at are selling in incredible numbers(290000!!----in 1985 they sold 36000).Yes their stock has dropped a bit but check the P/E ratio----its not bad somewhere around 20:1. let me be like KPAUl and make a prediction.....HD will sell fewer bikes next year due to a letdown after the 100 anniversary year.Naysayers like those on this site will trumpet the downfall of HD while HD still makes good profits.....stock prices will drop BUY !!!!!! Harley will still sell over 200000 bikes next year(an unbelievable number 10 years ago),sales will start rising again as dealers stop price gouging and stock will do well.HD will be healthy for awhile.
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Old 04-18-2003, 04:24 AM   #42
The_Aerodynamic_Head
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Default In his defense...

I can't belive who's "rescue" I'm coming to, but c'mon seruzawa, really, Man.



You know that anyone with half-a-ball can get the Ninja for a good bit less than that. Especially if they waited until say, February or March of '02 when the dealer was desperate.



And it's also entirely reasonable to assume that the grey ponytail brotherhood paid well in excess of the 13,885 list for heir FXDX. Try $15,500 to $17k. (At least here in Atlanta, where H-D is THE bike of choice.)



It wouldn't be hard to see how the H-D guy would've lost as much dollar value as your ninja guy (using your NADA values). Which means that our friend The Crotch Rocketeer over there lost more value as a percentage of total dollars invested, but paid a lot less monthly.



And the most important point: that NADA values never translate to trade-in value.



In other words, I think the H-D resale value is largely a myth these days. I recently got bit on the butt by it, let me tell you.
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Old 04-18-2003, 04:35 AM   #43
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Default Re: As a H-D stockholder I thank you.

LOL Could be true someday no no never.......
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Old 04-18-2003, 04:37 AM   #44
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Default Re: In his defense...

Hey I like "Crotch Rocketeer" I might use that one for alias someday.
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Old 04-18-2003, 04:47 AM   #45
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Default Re: Another Record for H-D

Not bad, but let me go further...



As supply (from new production and private used bike sales) has increased, demand has remained steady (at a level that has never been met, so has never been tested.)



The used -Harley market is showing signs of softness already. After the 100th Anniv. glut, dealers will have less room to mark the new bikes up. So as price-gouging for new bikes becomes a thing of the past, it will push used-bike prices down as well, starting the end to the "reasale magic" of Harleys.



*I* predict that while the Factory will remain strong, (even if a slowdown for 1-3 years ensues), what we will see is a major shakeout in the dealer network, faster and harder than the AMF years. Why? Because the AMF slowdown was corporate at its source. This will be market-driven, and the market is much less forgiving.



My H-D dealer (still great folks even if I sold my Road King, I still ride with a couple of them) says that the V-Rod is to Harley what the electric-car mandate is to the Big Three Auto Makers. It is a fast-replicating, slow-selling albatros. They sell them for retail as soon as they get them in. Traditional (read: experienced) Harley riders still buy displacement, and the V-Rod doesn't have much. To many of these folks, there is a strong appeal to mechanical simplicity, whether they work on their own bikes or not. The V-Rod is a dark cauldron to them.



But, yeah, I'd really like to see more money put into Buell as well.
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Old 04-18-2003, 05:26 AM   #46
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Default Re: Another Record for H-D

good post...its nice to get reasonable dialogue regarding HD.I agree with what you say. Harley will face some tough decisions as to where to put their investments as they try to retain their traditional customers while attracting the younger riders coming from a MX/sportbike background.
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Old 04-18-2003, 05:31 AM   #47
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Default Re: In his defense...

Next time you are feeling "bit", contact me and we can work out a price for any Harley you own. I'm sure if somebody "bit" you it's because you were in a hurry, and they saw you coming. If anyone you know is selling at well below "myth" prices, please don't hesitate to contact me as I have cash in hand.
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Old 04-18-2003, 01:02 PM   #48
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Default Hey you are the Raider fan.

I just thought the Raiders would win. I am sure cruisers will sell but the growth is not there anymore.
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Old 04-19-2003, 06:37 AM   #49
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Default Re: Hey you are the Raider fan.

I was just kidding you about the Raider thing. I just don't see where any evidence exists that the cruiser market will slow.



Your "predictions" are based more on personal bias rather than facts. I'll bet you'll find the buyers of naked bikes are guys in their 40s rather than young kids eschewing a cruiser purchase.



Ask your 20-something friends at school what the would buy if cost was no object and I'll bet you'll get a surprising set of answers.
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Old 04-21-2003, 05:39 AM   #50
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Default Re: In his defense...

Please, please, please! Save yourself! don't be like me and get sucked into KPaulKook's Entropic Universe of Circular Logic. If you don't you'll find yourself quoting "facts" and stats from website's and magazines in a ridiculous attempt to "win" an internet argument rather than dealing with the real world.



Don't let this happen to you. It's too late for me..... I'm sinking..........
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