Hard times coming for Harley?

[obandoj]

As of today's report from the New York Stock Exchange, HD's stock is down to $43.00 a share, down $7.00 a share from The Highwayman's last report on MO, close to 20% down.

Where are you Highwayman? In hidding now? I'm not surprised, you are a moron and a coward!!

[bigjames]

You have got to be kidding.



Has anyone at MO been listening to what Harley is doing for the 100th?



They increased production by a large amount to meet demand for the anniversary bikes. Not raising production numbers for 2004 should be no surprise, the fact that they have not lowered those numbers, considering the 2003 sales is amazing in itself. Any real investor who actually knows about the company would be aware of that. Lame investors and lame reporters got nervous, everybody else shrugged.



Stick to reporting about motorcycles, leave the financial reporting to the Wall Street Journal, CNN FN and CNBC....

[longride]

I can see it now. Investors fleeing, the company floundering, the owners panicking. Bikes being sold for 1/10th of the purchase price and they are happy just to get anything. Panic in the streets! And there I am, cash in hand, picking up a few more Harleys at bargain prices. I can dream, can't I?

[Buzglyd]

The squids have been repeating that same line for about ten years now and it still hasn't happened. How come all those low-mileage Harleys haven't flooded the market yet?



I still can't believe when I bought my Low Rider in 1996 H-D had just reached production volume of 100,000 units per year. Now they're close to 300,000 including a 14 month production cycle for 2003. In 2000 they sold more bikes than Honda which is incredible considering Honda has a multi-bike product line compared to one style of motorcycle for H-D.



They really ought to start making sportbikes. They might sell a few motorcycles that way! lol



I went for a nice ride down the coast yesterday on my neighbors Road Glide. Only three more weeks to go!

[obandoj]

Hey bigjames, last I heard Harley Davidson was manufacturing motorcycles!

[HoundDawg]

It's too bad that the investors who are getting nervous haven't done their homework. Why has Harley raised their production taget each year for many years? Because their production, i.e. supply, was so much lower than the demand. In the 90's you could expect to wait 1 to 2 years to get a bike from a fair dealer with a waiting list, i.e. one that would sell a stock bike for MSRP rather than add on chrome bits and charge you way too much. This is also why Harleys kept their value. A used bike could be bought without the long wait so the selling value was higher than the depreciated value. Harley increased production slowly and steadily as the capability of their production gradully increased. Now perhaps they've matched the supply with the demand and there is no longer the need to increase production. To see this go to any Harley shop and see how many bikes are available. It's not because they are not selling more bikes, it's because they have more bikes to sell.

[bboule]

Seems like stupid investors to me.



HD is just being smart enough to keep the supply low so prices stay high and Baby Boomers continue hear the whole story about how hard it is to get a Harley, making them want them even more.



Seems like a good time to buy some HD stock if it's really down 20%.

[KPaulCook]

Until I see that profit is going to go down substantially, I am going to hold. Even my wife wants to buy more. For all my criticism, HD is great at marketing and as longride has pointed out HD strength areloyal customers and the way the treat their employees. I think other american companies could learn from that. My criticism are nit picks in the big scheme of things. I hope the expand the V-Rod line and give Buell better motors. But as long as they turn a profit.

[PistolPete]

Nervous investors are the worst thing for a stock. Harley is successful because they keep supply below demand. This is good for nearly everyone involved. Harley sells every bike they make without offering incentives. They give more bikes to the dealers with the highest customer satisfaction ratings, and since every Harley dealer is competing to get extra inventory, they are encouraged to treat the customer well. Lower supply also allows the dealer to add in profit items, and often the customer is happy to pay. Resale value of harleys seem to sit around msrp when they were new, because of long waits or surcharges on new.



Look at how this has been successful in autos, like the S2000. If honda took a nich car like that and increased supply, like vw did with the new beetle, prices would drop, both of new and used.

[captainwhoopass]

"They really ought to start making sportbikes."



Why? I would understand that kind of move if they just wanted more market share, but if they want to make more profit, they're better off sticking to cruisers (IMO).