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Betamax · 01-22-2003, 04:26 PM

Next year's motorcycle sales will be fueled by Biker Boyz, not by The Wild Ones.

Kids want sportbikes, not cruisers. HD stock is running on empty, and the suits know it.

longride · 01-22-2003, 04:35 PM

I'd say the "wishful thinking" is that somehow people won't get old. When Harley started their first record year of this string I was 28! Now I'm 45. All Harley has to do is wait and the customers end up in their demographic.

longride · 01-22-2003, 04:36 PM

After 17 years of record profits, the kids aren't kids anymore.

Betamax · 01-22-2003, 04:54 PM

These kids are kids, and if Harley's masterplan is to wait till they age, then their stock is going to go down a lot further.

The new generation, unlike any other American generation, have grown up in a multi-national culture. They've been raised on Nintendo and Sony, so the pejorative "rice burner" will be meaningless to them. They'll demand performance, and not be placated by that mercenary brand of patriotism that Harley peddles.

Then again, maybe P.T. Barnum was right...

Buzglyd · 01-22-2003, 04:59 PM

Longride beat me to the punch here but yes the 20 somethings will soon be 30 something and then 40 something. Plus, Harley does have lower priced offerings like the Sportster and the Dyna Superglide. Harleys are quite popular with the 20 something crowd and I regularly take girls in their 20s for rides.

For the record I bought my first Harley in 1996 when I was 32. So if you do the math I'm still in my 30s and have another one on the way.

Buzglyd · 01-22-2003, 05:00 PM

Spoken like someone who's never left a college campus.

Betamax · 01-22-2003, 05:02 PM

Spoken like someone who's never been to one.

Betamax · 01-22-2003, 05:08 PM

(and polishing the floors at night doesn't count)

KPaulCook · 01-22-2003, 05:19 PM

You make some interesting points.

With the exception of the V-Rod your old guys young guys thing I agree with. Just cause folks get older doesn't guarantee that will be attracted to cruisers. i.e. a 40 year old in 2012 will not necessarily like the same thing a different 40 year old liked in 2002. However, I think if Harley expands the V-Rod i.e. offer a Monster like bike with the V-Rod motor. or something else etc. They will be OK with the younger crowd.

On the P/E ratio. Yes 20 was the rule of thumb I learned for overvaluation. However, compared to the overvalued stocks of today with P/Es over 100 in less mature markets, some would argue Harley could be undervalued. Howerver, I tend to agree with you on that Harley could be tiny bit overvalued compared to Hondas 6 (I am suprised to see).

KPaulCook · 01-22-2003, 05:25 PM

I agree with you on this Beta. I have argued this point with longride a few times. Just because a 40 year old in 2002 likes Harley doesn't mean a 40 year old in 2014 is going like the same things. As you correctly point out. Different generations with different influences. I think the Harley V-Rod is a good start but Harley should try to have diversfy i.e. not have the eggs in one basket.

01-22-2003, 04:26 PM	#21
Betamax Founding Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 236	Re: Hard times coming for Harley? Next year's motorcycle sales will be fueled by Biker Boyz, not by The Wild Ones. Kids want sportbikes, not cruisers. HD stock is running on empty, and the suits know it.

01-22-2003, 04:35 PM	#22
longride Super Duper Mod Man Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Anywhere they let me Posts: 10,484	Re: Harley Financials... I'd say the "wishful thinking" is that somehow people won't get old. When Harley started their first record year of this string I was 28! Now I'm 45. All Harley has to do is wait and the customers end up in their demographic. __________________ I'm a knucklehead

01-22-2003, 04:36 PM	#23
longride Super Duper Mod Man Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Anywhere they let me Posts: 10,484	Re: Hard times coming for Harley? After 17 years of record profits, the kids aren't kids anymore. __________________ I'm a knucklehead

01-22-2003, 04:54 PM	#24
Betamax Founding Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 236	Re: Hard times coming for Harley? These kids are kids, and if Harley's masterplan is to wait till they age, then their stock is going to go down a lot further. The new generation, unlike any other American generation, have grown up in a multi-national culture. They've been raised on Nintendo and Sony, so the pejorative "rice burner" will be meaningless to them. They'll demand performance, and not be placated by that mercenary brand of patriotism that Harley peddles. Then again, maybe P.T. Barnum was right...

01-22-2003, 04:59 PM	#25
Buzglyd Founding Member Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 10,137	Re: Harley Financials... Longride beat me to the punch here but yes the 20 somethings will soon be 30 something and then 40 something. Plus, Harley does have lower priced offerings like the Sportster and the Dyna Superglide. Harleys are quite popular with the 20 something crowd and I regularly take girls in their 20s for rides. For the record I bought my first Harley in 1996 when I was 32. So if you do the math I'm still in my 30s and have another one on the way. __________________ Jay Leno: "President Obama released his tax returns. It turns out he made $900,000 less in 2011 than he did in 2010. You know what that means? Even Obama is doing worse under President Obama."

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01-22-2003, 05:00 PM	#26
Buzglyd Founding Member Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 10,137	Re: Hard times coming for Harley? Spoken like someone who's never left a college campus. __________________ Jay Leno: "President Obama released his tax returns. It turns out he made $900,000 less in 2011 than he did in 2010. You know what that means? Even Obama is doing worse under President Obama."

01-22-2003, 05:02 PM	#27
Betamax Founding Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 236	Re: Hard times coming for Harley? Spoken like someone who's never been to one.

01-22-2003, 05:08 PM	#28
Betamax Founding Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 236	Re: Hard times coming for Harley? (and polishing the floors at night doesn't count)

01-22-2003, 05:19 PM	#29
KPaulCook Banned Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 2,756	Re: Harley Financials... You make some interesting points. With the exception of the V-Rod your old guys young guys thing I agree with. Just cause folks get older doesn't guarantee that will be attracted to cruisers. i.e. a 40 year old in 2012 will not necessarily like the same thing a different 40 year old liked in 2002. However, I think if Harley expands the V-Rod i.e. offer a Monster like bike with the V-Rod motor. or something else etc. They will be OK with the younger crowd. On the P/E ratio. Yes 20 was the rule of thumb I learned for overvaluation. However, compared to the overvalued stocks of today with P/Es over 100 in less mature markets, some would argue Harley could be undervalued. Howerver, I tend to agree with you on that Harley could be tiny bit overvalued compared to Hondas 6 (I am suprised to see).

01-22-2003, 05:25 PM	#30
KPaulCook Banned Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 2,756	Re: Hard times coming for Harley? I agree with you on this Beta. I have argued this point with longride a few times. Just because a 40 year old in 2002 likes Harley doesn't mean a 40 year old in 2014 is going like the same things. As you correctly point out. Different generations with different influences. I think the Harley V-Rod is a good start but Harley should try to have diversfy i.e. not have the eggs in one basket.