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Old 03-04-2007, 10:28 PM   #41
schizuki
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Default Re: Good Grief Charlie Brown

Your points are utterly meaningless, because they ignore two points:



One, older riders will naturally be more likely to die in an accident than younger riders; and two, you do not take into account whether motorcycle ridership by over-45s has increased overall and by what percent. But you know that, don't you?



Mull over this:



"Older motorcycle riders, who account for an increasingly larger proportion of all motorcyclists, now account for about half of all motorcycle rider fatalities. NHTSA data show that in 2005, 47 percent of motorcycle riders killed in crashes were age 40 or over, compared with 25 percent ten years earlier. In contrast, fatalities among young motorcycle riders have declined in the past 10 years, relative to other age groups. In 2005 fatalities in the under 30-year old group dropped to 32 percent, from 50 percent in 1995. Fatalities among motorcyclists in the 30- to 39-year old group fell to 21 percent in 2005, from 26 percent ten years earlier."



Now, let me lead you by the hand:



One-third of fatalities are in a (roughly) 12-year cohort.



One-fifth of fatalities are in a ten-year cohort.



That's over half the accidents in a 22-year (24 at the outside) cohort.



40-and-over accounts for 47%. What's the cohort size? 25? That's conservative, right? We're leaving out anybody over 64. Doesn't look so bad now, does it? And the younger guys bounce better. Can't fault the older guys for being more brittle.



Now, here's the biggie, kpaul. Listen close. The median age of motorcyclists in the US is 42. You do know what a "median" is, right? Good. Now look at that 47% fatality rate for over-40s. Draw on your Stats 101 and your Math 101 and any other 101 you want and tell me - what does it mean when over-40 riders in a riding population with a median age of 42 account for 47% of fatalities? What conclusions can you draw about the "GPTB"?





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Old 03-04-2007, 10:33 PM   #42
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Default You MOron

My points are direct quotes from the article. Wow you have totally lost it.
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Old 03-04-2007, 10:54 PM   #43
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Default Re: You MOron

So what was your point? You just randomly copied-and-pasted a paragraph from the article?
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Old 03-04-2007, 11:54 PM   #44
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Default Re: Another Crash Statistic Study - Bad News

Let me start this by saying that helmets are a good idea and everyone should wear one.



I have no goddamned idea what your point is.
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Old 03-05-2007, 05:05 AM   #45
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Default Re: Another Crash Statistic Study - Bad News

It's a 2% differential, period. Nobody is going to say I made 66% more on my money because I made 2% more. Sorry, that dog don't hunt.
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Old 03-05-2007, 06:20 AM   #46
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Default Re: Another Crash Statistic Study - Bad News

They will if your money starts making 5% (instead of 3%) returns...

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Old 03-05-2007, 06:31 AM   #47
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Default Re: where's the one about all the crashes happening within 25 miles of home?

safety first!
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Old 03-05-2007, 06:40 AM   #48
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Default Re: Ahem

I'm still laughing at "cell-phone-yakking-branch-whakkers" That's a good one....



All this says to me is you young whipper-snapper 40 somethings better get your nose out of the bottle and learn to ride before you go all Peter Fonda on us....
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Old 03-05-2007, 06:46 AM   #49
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Default Re: Another Crash Statistic Study - Bad News

Thank You BrowningBAR! Finally, someone else is looking at these bull***** report's statistics and poking holes in them. Every one of the "studies" I've seen has reported a huge "increase" in fatalities from riding. NOT ONE makes the simple and obvious connection to the huge increase in riders, but of course, indicating that motorcycling is getting safer just doesn't make for good headlines. Also: I'm no math whiz, but can someone explain to me how a 2% difference in fatalities "extrapolates" to a 66% greater chance of getting killed if you don't wear a helmet? HUH?
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Old 03-05-2007, 07:03 AM   #50
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Default Re: Another Crash Statistic Study - Bad News

"In their study of motorcycle crash trends in Michigan since 2001, Kostyniuk and colleague Adam Nation found that the number of motorcycle crashes overall increased 9 percent, while motorcycle registrations have risen 33 percent."



That sure looks to me like motorcycling is getting safer, not more dangerous. By a hefty percentage!
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