Here we are again, nosing around the garage area and the vicinity of the start/finish line, anticipating a full new season of MotoGP. Everyone is optimistic. Everyone is putting their best foot forward. The power brokers, the likes of Yamaha’s Lin Jarvis and Honda’s Livio Suppo, are maintaining low profiles, keeping their powder dry in case – this probably of more concern to Suppo than Jarvis – their 2016 project turns out to be a dumpster fire.

How have things shaped up as the season started in years past?

2015 was a bit of a rebound year for Valentino Rossi who led the championship for most of the season. But how much more does the Doctor have left?

2013: Heading into the season, with Casey Stoner gone and Marc Marquez arriving, defending world champion Jorge Lorenzo looked ready, willing and able to repeat, with chase coming from Dani Pedrosa, Valentino Rossi and Marquez. Rossi would take most of the year to get comfortable on the Yamaha in his first year back from Ducati purgatory. Pedrosa and Lorenzo got hurt in the Netherlands and Germany. Marquez made it look easy, snatching his first world championship as a rookie and assaulting the record books across the board. Crutchlow, Bautista and Bradl were expected to make some noise at some point. They mostly didn’t.

2014: Defending champion Marquez started by reeling off 10 straight, then coasted to an effortless championship followed by Rossi, Lorenzo and Pedrosa, about as expected.

2015: Last year, it turned out, was not the three-peat envisioned by most Marquez fans. He crashed out of several races early, conceded the early lead to Lorenzo, conceded more to Rossi, and watched helplessly as the title devolved into a Rossi/Lorenzo scrap. He mixed it up with Rossi on several occasions, the Italian getting the better of all of them. Rossi and Lorenzo headed into Valencia essentially tied for the lead but Rossi, having been severely punished for events in Sepang, resulting in him starting last on the grid, ultimately finished fourth with Lorenzo cruising to both the win and the championship, Marquez at his wing.

What Have We Learned During All This Winter Testing?

Maverick Vinales and Andrea Iannone join the big boy table at the Qatar press conference with Dani Pedrosa, Valentino Rossi, Jorge Lorenzo and Marc Marquez.

Several things. Lorenzo appears to be the man to beat. Maverick Vinales intends to stick his nose in some podium contests and appears to have sufficient machine beneath him to do so. Rossi, Marquez and Andrea Iannone appear destined to battle Vinales for second and third. Scott Redding may have found the right bike at the right time to propel him into a consistent top six performer. (Remember him during his last season in Moto2 when he would ride the wheels off in the turns then get eaten alive in the straights.) Pedrosa needs to stay upright all season long if he wants to finish in the top four, otherwise he is destined for a second division seeding along with:

  • Andrea Dovisiozo
  • Cal Crutchlow
  • Aleix Espargaro
  • Pol Espargaro
  • Hector Barbera
  • Bradley Smith

Danilo Petrucci would have been in this group had he not broken his hand, and still might end up here. Michelle Pirro will sub for DP in Qatar.

Danilo Petrucci broke his hand in a crash during the Phillip Island test. With an unexpected podium finish last season at Silverstone, Petrucci has been better than a lot of people expected.

Those Aiming for Points Alone

The third tier looking to make it into the top 15, will include Eugene Laverty, Loris Baz, Yonny Hernandez, Stefan Bradl, Alvaro Bautista, Jack Miller and Tito Rabat. Bradl sounds confident, but it smells of baloney. Rabat says his goal is top ten finishes – he has his work cut out for him.

We’re going to go out on a limb and predict Tito Rabat will win rookie of the year this season. Of course, it helps that he’s the only first-year rider in MotoGP.

Winning at Losail – What Does it Mean?

Only three of the last eight winners at Losail went on to title in their respective years – Stoner in 2011, Lorenzo in 2012 and Marquez in 2014. Since they are also three of the last five, it’s clear to me that past performance has little to do with future performance. Recent performance, however, might well have something to do with performance this year.

Maverick Vinales impressed at the pre-season tests which bodes well for Suzuki.

Let’s just say this: if young Mr. Vinales challenges for the win in Doha, that is significant. The track is built nicely for the Ducs and Yamahas, but the Suzuki has not enjoyed a great deal of success in the desert. A second place finish would put pressure on the Aliens behind him, as well on teammate Aleix Espargaro, who is not getting nearly as much from his identical ride.

I also think there is room in this championship for a second division rider to compete toward the top of the timesheets. I’m thinking here of someone like a Hector Barbera (or a Redding) for whom the standard ECU is an improvement. Perhaps Barbera’s practice times in Australia were more indicative of what he’s able to produce now that the electronics are mostly equal.

A new season brings a new tire provider and spec ECU. Dorna’s Carmelo Ezpeleta hopes they’ll translate to an exciting championship chase.

And, let it not go unsaid that whichever teams get accustomed to the Michelins the quickest will end up doing the best. This is what separates the factory Yamaha and Honda teams from the rest, the skill of their teams at finding settings that work over race distances. On whatever rubber you got. The Ducatis seem not to mind the Michelins.

Clearly, with 13 crashes in Australia, most of which were blamed on tires, Michelin has plenty to do as well. Riders will need to beware on cold morning outlaps in the northern latitudes.

Silly Season Silliness

With an aging Rossi the other option, resigning the reigning World Champion Jorge Lorenzo is a priority for Yamaha.

With almost all the primary riders in contract years in 2016, rumors are already flying about who’s gonna sign where and when. Jorge Lorenzo seems to be giving ground to his masters at Yamaha, first insisting he needed a deal in hand prior to the start of the season and now, suddenly, agreeable to some mid-season negotiations. Rossi is saying two years or nothing from here; Yamaha has not leaped into his arms as of this writing.

Herve Poncharal has delivered an ultimatum to his pair of Bradley Smith and Pol Espargaro: The future is now. If you cannot deliver podiums on a regular basis I will need to find riders who can. As boss, Herve has the right to express his opinion. My opinion is that both factory Yamahas, Marquez, a couple of the Ducatis and maybe Vinales are better than either Smith or Espargaro. Asking the Tech 3 riders to produce consistent podiums is asking a lot. Perhaps Poncharal is thinking more in terms of creating vacancies for Vinales or Alex Rins/Johann Zarco/Jonas Folger.

Tech 3 remains one of the top satellite teams on the grid and the team will have a choice of suitors should Bradley Smith or Pol Espargaro fail to earn a contract renewal.

Vinales and young Alex Rins in Moto2 are in the wind, pretty much everyone’s best guess as to Aliens-in-Waiting. An aging Dani Pedrosa (dearly coveted by KTM for 2017) at Repsol Honda, a seriously aging Rossi at Yamaha; at some point the suits are gonna pull some plugs. Plus, it’s impossible not to wonder when Casey Stoner, watching riders he considers barely his equal go flying over the handlebars trying to get it on with the Michelins, says “lol” and climbs back onboard for a wildcard at Phillip Island. The Australian could throw a spanner into the works of more than one rider at that point in the season. Easier to envision if doing so were to provide him an opportunity to interrupt a Yamaha or a Honda on its way to the title. Stoner could easily add some extra testosterone to the mix.

Wonder if having Casey Stoner waiting in the wings will put some pressure on Ducati riders Andrea Iannone or Andrea Dovizioso.

And what about Marquez? It’s easy to see him spending his career at Honda, assuming he wants to. What if the RC213V remains un-rideable for the next three years? What if Yamaha or Ducati establish some genuine dominance in the category? Is it so hard to visualize young Marquez in Yamaha blue or Ducati red? Not for me.

Ducati, with eight riders flogging Desmosedicis this year, has some keepers and some others. Iannone, Petrucci, Redding and Baz appear to be capable of top ten finishes. My pick as the next Ducati shining star is Iannone, but he needs to make something happen this year. With KTM joining the fray next season interested in poaching high profile riders, and several riders talking about moving from World Superbike (Johnny Rea) and Moto2 (Zarco, Rins) there could be new faces on any number of the Ducati teams. Especially now that it’s not viewed as a career killer.

Last season showed Marc Marquez isn’t the unbeatable phenom he was in his first two MotoGP seasons but he remains a threat for the championship.

So I expect Honda to make a spirited run at Marquez and Yamaha to do the same with Lorenzo. Beyond that, teams may wait and see, or look to strike pre-emptively and roll the dice on a Vinales or a Rins or a Smith or Pol Espargaro, someone capable of giving them regular looks at podia on the right bike, and with plenty of upside.

Bottom Line

The bottom line is that Qatar is anyone’s race and 2016 is anyone’s season, most especially Jorge Lorenzo. Will Marquez and Rossi find themselves drawn to one another, magnetically, Rossi spoiling to continue the 2015 vendetta? Do Marquez, Vinales and Iannone have enough to challenge Lorenzo on a regular basis? Is this Rossi’s “one season too many?” Does Ducati push Honda out of #2 in the builder’s competition? Is the Suzuki under Vinales for real? Is Pedrosa still relevant to the title conversation?

My only prediction is that due to the tires and the ECU, we won’t see very many processions, and we won’t have someone, other than perhaps Lorenzo if everything goes perfectly for him, run away with the title in the first third of the season. My annual hope, for no parades and a tight title fight, looks pretty good right about now.

Aprilia set the bar low last season, calling it a developmental year. With an all-new RS-GP prototype and a full season with Stefan Bradl, it’s time to raise the expectations.

My second only prediction is that the top four will be comprised of Lorenzo, Marquez, Vinales and Iannone, perhaps in that order, with Rossi and Redding or Smith fighting for fifth place. In retrospect, my pre-season predictions – 2013 predicting Lorenzo, 2014 and 2015 Marquez – are usually poor. One for three among the current lot.

There will be plenty of video and plenty to discuss in 2016. We look forward to enjoying your comments posts if, as Jim Rome used to insist, you have a take, and you don’t suck. Profanity is never welcome, but contrasting points of view, especially those that are well-written, are always appreciated. As I’ve discovered over the years, MO has a pretty serious readership when it comes to the finer points of this stuff. So, watch the race, bring your comments, and let’s share… lol…

The race goes off Sunday at 2:00 pm EDT. We’ll have results, analysis and commentary right here late Sunday or Monday morning.

Check back here after the race for Bruce’s recap.
  • DKing

    Woo hoo…first comment! lol Nice to hear from you again Bruce! Looking forward to a good season. Being a gixxer rider, I would love to see the zuki come out on top. Otherwise, go Rossi and Iannone!

  • Old MOron

    Woo hoo! I’ve been waiting for this MOronic article. Well done, Brucey! Very comprehensive. I notice that last year you put riders into three tranches, but this year you seem to have the aliens, a “second division”, and a “third tier”. Hooray for variety.

    And speaking of variety, you’ve put the Maniac Joe and the Maverick into slots normally reserved for Valentino and Dani. Okay, let’s rock the boat! Dani certainly has not done well in preseason testing. Vale has fared better, if not as well as his main rivals. Still, he always finds something extra when the lights go out on Sunday.

    Will Friday never get here?!

    • Bruce Allen

      You realize, of course, that I am simply playing hunches. We/I should have a much clearer idea of what’s up after Austin. Nice to have you back again leading the cheering section. ;-P

      • Old MOron

        You realize that you’re in good company. How many times has Valentino surprised everyone on Sunday because he and Jeremy followed a hunch?

  • JMDonald

    I wish all the riders well this season. The linear progression of races will be interesting to say the least. Here’s to a safe competitive 2016. You never know.

  • Scott

    Somebody please tell me bein sports is NOT the only channel this will be televised in the US this year…

    • DKing

      I’m not sure if it is the only channel, but there is motogp.com…

    • gunny 2shoes

      bein just supplies the feed from motogp, and probably jam you with some self- promotion to go with it.

  • john phyyt

    With electronics not being as important to, tire preservation and corner speed. I see pure riding brilliance, with the capacity to ride faster on a bucking sliding monster in variable racing conditions being most important. This will disadvantage The Mr smooths on perfectly set-up bikes. This suggests Rossi , but I have reservations about his age and temperament. Dear Honda give Marquez the quickest accelerating and fastest bike, he will ride around the shortcomings and give you the championship.

  • Old MOron

    Hey, I’d forgotten that practice starts on Thursday at Losail. Damn! The first practice session begins at 8 AM pacific time. I’ll be at work, in a meeting. Argh!

    • Bruce Allen

      Watch it on your phone (in your lap) with a discrete earbud. Since it’s only practice you’re not likely to jump up and scream, “YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.”

      • Old MOron

        I’m not just an old MOron. I’m also a Luddite. Don’t own a smart phone. Good idea for watching during my meeting, though.

  • spiff

    Ahh… Go Rossi!!! End transmission.

  • gunny 2shoes

    2:00 pm EDT any particular day maybe?

    • Bruce Allen

      I think it’s on a Sunday. Check the website.

      • gunny 2shoes

        i know its a night race, i assume Sunday evening? maybe Saturday night? way over there somewhere, then there’s the Greenwich Mean Time thing so forgive me if i just don’t get it.

        • Bruce Allen

          The race runs at 2 pm EDT Sunday in the states. Not sure where you live or what the TV availability is there. Always happy to welcome new fans.

  • TroySiahaan

    Good stuff, Bruce. With so many variables in the air, this should be a fun season for the spectators! Couple talking points:

    – Smith has already been told he won’t be back at Tech 3 in 2017. Kinda strange position to be in for him considering the season hasn’t even started yet, but at least the entire paddock knows where he stands, so it’s up to him to earn a good ride next year.

    – Michelin has stepped up big time from the first test to the last test at Qatar. The fronts seem to be working well now and there are far fewer crashes. However, let’s wait until we get to tracks where Michelin have little or no data (COTA, for example).

    – The new ECUs will definitely reward riders who can manage traction better, but really, all the riders at this level are plenty capable of managing worn tires. What’s interesting here is that, unlike last year, the ECUs won’t be able to change settings in realtime depending on tire wear. I believe the riders now have three maps, changeable via buttons on the bar, that they can select as the race goes on to deal with tire wear. If a rider gets the red mist and charges hard, they might forget to change their settings. That’ll make for a good race at the beginning, but end in disaster at the end of the race. A calm, methodical head should benefit, and that’s where Rossi will shine.

    – Speaking of ECUs, Ducati must look like geniuses now. Having used the past few seasons to develop the spec ECU software on the satellite bikes, they come into 2016 with guns blazing. Even the GP 14.2 is going fast now! That said, it means nothing until one of them stands on the top step. And I firmly believe Stoner is done when it comes to returning for a full season. A one-off here and there? Sure.

    – Re: Aprilia. I wish them the best, but I’m not expecting much this year. I’ll be shocked (in a very good way) if Stefan or Alvaro crack the Top 10 at a race this year.

    Bring on the new season!

  • Vijay Maninathan

    That was a very good read! IMO, Dani and Rossi still have it in them, Sunday is their day, and numbers on other occasions don’t really give us the best picture. And I love how Vinales has stormed into the picture with the ‘zook! Exciting season ahead!

  • spiff

    I have already seen first practice, so keep that in mind. Don’t count out Rossi. Yamaha is good… give him a good bike in an unknown world (tires and ecu), and that bull dog may let go of his nuts and go after the competition.

  • Starmag

    Good article. That first pic is a funny photoshop. The fourth pic is something I’ve always wondered about, that is, how wrecks are retrieved.