MotoGP 2016 Misano Preview

The picturesque Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli welcomes the 2016 round at a critical point in the season. Repsol Honda phenom Marc Marquez sits on the cusp of clinching his third premier class title, with the Movistar Yamahas of Vale Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo in desperate pursuit. Four non-Aliens have won the last four rounds. Parity has set in. The Suzuki, factory Ducati and LCR Honda teams are legit. The Aliens finally have company – the premier class is no longer just their sandbox.

Fifty points in 2016 is a lot more than it was in 2013. More contenders, more traffic at the front, faster back markers. Rain becoming the norm. The Pacific Swing looming. The Yamahas will be pressing – win or bin is all that is left for them. Marquez can afford to play very carefully. He can also afford to occasionally vent his competitive juices with a multi-lap high-speed joust with the GOAT in Britain.

Round 13 in 2013: rookie Marc Marquez breezed into San Marino in first place, leading teammate Dani Pedrosa by 30 points and defending champion Lorenzo by 39. Lorenzo gave the crowd one of his machine-like performances, taking the lead early, putting his head down, and recording 27 smooth, fast laps, with Marquez unable to get any closer than 3 seconds and second place. As the day ended, Marquez increased his lead to 34 points with five rounds left in the season.

The 2014 GP TIM di San Marino e Della Rivera di Rimini will be remembered locally for a number of pleasant things. The fans got to see their idol, Movistar Yamaha wraith Valentino Rossi, win for the first time since Assen in 2013 and for the first time in Italy-ish since San Marino in 2009. They were lifted by the joy of watching that stronzo Marquez lay down his Repsol Honda going perhaps 80 kph. They saw their national bike, Ducati, place two Italian riders in the top five. All in all, it was a good day to be Italian. In the end it was a better year to be Marc Marquez.

As the Misano round of the 2015 MotoGP championship got underway, the weather gods were thoroughly bored, watching Jorge Lorenzo put another methodical sleeper on rivals teammate Valentino Rossi and the annoying Marc Marquez. So they decided to have a little fun, turning on the rain around Lap 6 and turning it off again during Lap 16, forcing a double flag-to-flag affair for the first time in recent memory.

When the laughter died down, Marc Marquez had a win, Bradley Smith and Scott Redding finished on the podium, and Rossi (5th) had extended his championship lead to 23 with five left. Jorge Lorenzo was in the medical center getting x-rays, having high-sided shortly after the second pit stop on cold tires and in desperate need to catch Rossi. Per fake Yamaha press release hours later, “Comrade Lorenzo has no issues riding in the rain. That is an order.”

As a recovering economist, I could easily argue that staying put produces a random and largely neutral distribution of outcomes. But, if your rider just got signed by the competition, be prepared for a bad season.

Unless it’s an Espargaro, in which case it will also be a bad season. But for different reasons.

Thinking about it some more, it is obvious that the number of riders each year who experience an objectively good season can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

The weather this weekend is expected to be Riviera-ish, low 80’s and dry on Friday and Saturday, with a chance of weather moving in on Sunday afternoon (!). Personally, I doubt it will rain, based solely upon the law of averages.

As to who might end up on the top step of the podium: Candidates include Marquez, Rossi, Crutchlow and Vinales. Lorenzo if conditions are perfect and no one calls him any bad names. Iannone if he can pay attention for the full 45 minutes. Pedrosa if he simply says, “To hell with it,” puts his head down and rides.