MotoGP: 2009 Jerez Preview

In the words of the great Chico Escuela of Saturday Night Live fame, “Jerez been berra berra good to Dani.” Spaniard Dani Pedrosa won here last year, after finishing second the previous two years. Last year, he was chased by eventual champion Valentino Rossi, countryman Jorge Lorenzo and the Kentucky Kid, Nicky Hayden. In 2007, Rossi won, while Colin Edwards took third, Toni Elias fourth and Stoner fifth. In 2006, Loris Capirossi beat Pedrosa by four seconds, followed by Hayden, Elias, Marco Melandri and Stoner.

(You can call up your friendly international bookmaker right now and get Pedrosa at 7 to 1, which strikes me as a prudent investment – one of many reasons I’m not a stockbroker any longer.)

Ballers – Fiat Yamaha’s Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo, Ducati Marlboro’s Casey Stoner, and the Repsol Honda duo of Dani Pedrosa and Andrea Dovizioso. One of these guys will win the title this year, though probably not Dovizioso. Rossi is off to a quick start in Spain leading the Friday practice session. Lorenzo has shown he is ready, willing and able to give his Fiat Yamaha teammate the business; he and Rossi really don’t get along. Stoner has the fastest machine in the world, but most of the rounds aren’t just about speed. Pedrosa is still healing from his March crash, but put on an amazing display at Motegi, coming from 11th place to second in the first half lap. These guys are definitely the top five.

Contenders – Tech 3 Yamaha’s Colin Edwards, Rizla Suzuki’s Chris Vermeulen and, remarkably, Hayate Kawasaki’s Marco Melandri. These three can expect to appear on a few podiums this year. They might not win a race, but they are clearly the second tier. Melandri may fade as the year wears on, since Kawasaki is giving him bupkis by way of support. He is, however, building a strong case for a new and improved ride next season.

Rookie of the Year, So Far – Pramac Ducati’s Mika Kallio. The guy minds his own business, and has gained ground on a lot of veterans in both races. He has a fast bike, doesn’t seem to scare easily, and appears to have a bright future. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him on a podium before the year’s out.

Huge Busts, So Far – Ducati Marlboro’s Nicky Hayden and Tech 3 Yamaha’s James Toseland. Hayden’s problems have largely been bad luck, while Toseland doesn’t get a fraction of what Colin Edwards gets from the same Yamaha bike. I predict Hayden will rise in the standings this season once he gets healthy, and expect the Brit will get tossed from his team immediately after season’s end. Look for Toseland to be riding Harleys in AMA races at state fairgrounds for five grand purses next year. Sorry, James – no more Yamaha babes holding umbrellas over you to keep the sunburn away.

Back to Hayden, if he isn’t fully recovered from his chest and back injuries, maybe he should have blown off Jerez and head to Churchill Downs instead. He’s about the right size, it’s close to home, and he’s not going to have some Takahashi trying to knock him into the middle of next week. He’d probably make more money in Louisville than chasing Pedrosa and Lorenzo in Spain, and he’d definitely have a better time.

Serious race fans will nonetheless be happy that the Red Bull MotoGP Rookies Cup gets started with a pair of races this week in Jerez. Watching these teenagers racing reminds me of watching 7-year old boys coming out of their drawers playing T-ball. They need notes from their moms so they can miss school to race these bikes! Awesome!

I own socks older than most of these riders and the high achievers will be showing up in the MotoGP 125cc class very soon. Catch the video feed of the race on http://www.redbullrookiescup.com/, and American fans should keep their eyes on 15-year old Jake Gagne, 14-year old Benny Solis, and another Kentuckian, 14-year-old Hayden Gillim.

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